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Wednesday, 12 October 16
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
 Another Monday has gone by, bringing with it further turbulence for oil. A series of meetings between high-production nations Russia & Saudi Arabia yielded statements signaling that a potential agreement to limit crude output is a possibility. According to Vladimir Putin “Russia is ready to join the joint measures to cap production and is calling for other oil exporters to join”. At the same time, Algeria has also called for similar measures to be taken by non-OPEC members. Following these events, and amidst speculation regarding the firming possibility of a Clinton presidency next month, oil surged to its highest levels this year, with the Brent futures reaching USD 53.73 and finally closing at USD 53.14 on Monday.
While the expectation of a possible agreement played its part in driving the futures to higher levels, the upward trend was short-lived with Brent falling back to USD 52.84 this morning. Growing doubts regarding whether the proposed measures would be enough to compensate for two years of oversupply, especially considering the higher production figures coming out of Libya, Nigeria and Iraq, have reigned in the index.
The strained relationship between OPEC members is also a concern, especially when it comes to Iran which, with its recent re-entry into the market, is looking to regain lost market share by increasing production. This comes into direct opposition with Saudi Arabia who has been adamant regarding Iran’s commitment to any such future agreement.
Furthermore, Iraq has also been looking at growing production next year and has been one of the main opponents of an agreement. Goldman Sachs issued a statement to clients regarding the increased possibility of a production cut deal but also stressing that markets are unlikely to rebalance within the year.
Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih expressed his confidence that a deal would be reached by November. However, he further stressed the need to tread carefully and responsibly in order to not shock the market too much. It is very much worth noting that a potential large increase in oil prices might allow high-cost exporters (such as US shale exporters for whom current prices are unprofitable) to resume production starting the cycle all over again. On the other hand, in case a deal is unattainable, it is quite likely that we will see levels towards the low-40s once again.
These events have also been felt in the tanker market. Nigerian and Brazilian outputs specifically have helped to stop the recent decline in tanker rates. With Nigerian volumes back up to around 1.8mb/d, we have seen firmer Suezmax and VL rates (at 22k/d and 40k/d respectively). Brazil's output reached 2.6mb/d in August and is on a steady climb, which is expected to last until 2025. As internal demand has declined, exports have risen with approximately 40% of Brazil crude heading to China. Despite the adverse effect oversupply has had on prices and even though demand matching supply is rather questionable at the current state of the market, it has still offered more business for tankers and, as such, higher prices for oil won’t increase demand for it.
All in all, we will have to wait until the November official OPEC meetings for further firm developments. Given the general feeling of uncertainty and multitude of market-affecting variables in play at the moment, however, any sort of long-lasting stability seems rather farfetched.
By Linos Kogevinas
Marketing—Harbour Towage & Port Agency
Cotzias Intermodal Shipping Inc.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 15 September 16
CAPESIZE: LAST WEEK ENDED ON A VERY STRONG NOTE MAINLY DRIVEN BY A ACTIVE BRAZIL MARKET - FEARNLYS
Supramax
With holidays in the eastern hemisphere beginning this week, the sentiment and activity level has been decreasing.
In the Pacific, ...
Wednesday, 14 September 16
THE DRY BULK MARKET REACHED LEVELS LAST SEEN BACK IN 2015 - INTERMODAL
In an earlier column we commented that we are undergoing “shipping’s new (ab)normal” with constrained financing, shift in demand ...
Wednesday, 14 September 16
THE PORT OF NEWCASTLE SHIPPED 12.48 MMT OF COAL IN AUGUST; AVERAGE SELLING PRICE WAS $AU 83.33
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export port has shipped $AU $1,040.4 ...
Tuesday, 13 September 16
CAPESIZE: BIG STRENGTH SEEN IN THE MARKET THIS WEEK - ALLIED
Capesize - Big strength seen in the market this week, with an upbeat in sentiment amongst owners helping pull up rates fairly quickly and many hold ...
Monday, 12 September 16
THE CAPE MARKET HAS GAINS ON WEEK; THE CAPE INDEX SETTLING AT 1566 POINTS ON FRIDAY
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities rose and ending in a positive note this past week. The BD ...
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- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
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