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Wednesday, 12 October 16
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
 Another Monday has gone by, bringing with it further turbulence for oil. A series of meetings between high-production nations Russia & Saudi Arabia yielded statements signaling that a potential agreement to limit crude output is a possibility. According to Vladimir Putin “Russia is ready to join the joint measures to cap production and is calling for other oil exporters to join”. At the same time, Algeria has also called for similar measures to be taken by non-OPEC members. Following these events, and amidst speculation regarding the firming possibility of a Clinton presidency next month, oil surged to its highest levels this year, with the Brent futures reaching USD 53.73 and finally closing at USD 53.14 on Monday.
While the expectation of a possible agreement played its part in driving the futures to higher levels, the upward trend was short-lived with Brent falling back to USD 52.84 this morning. Growing doubts regarding whether the proposed measures would be enough to compensate for two years of oversupply, especially considering the higher production figures coming out of Libya, Nigeria and Iraq, have reigned in the index.
The strained relationship between OPEC members is also a concern, especially when it comes to Iran which, with its recent re-entry into the market, is looking to regain lost market share by increasing production. This comes into direct opposition with Saudi Arabia who has been adamant regarding Iran’s commitment to any such future agreement.
Furthermore, Iraq has also been looking at growing production next year and has been one of the main opponents of an agreement. Goldman Sachs issued a statement to clients regarding the increased possibility of a production cut deal but also stressing that markets are unlikely to rebalance within the year.
Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih expressed his confidence that a deal would be reached by November. However, he further stressed the need to tread carefully and responsibly in order to not shock the market too much. It is very much worth noting that a potential large increase in oil prices might allow high-cost exporters (such as US shale exporters for whom current prices are unprofitable) to resume production starting the cycle all over again. On the other hand, in case a deal is unattainable, it is quite likely that we will see levels towards the low-40s once again.
These events have also been felt in the tanker market. Nigerian and Brazilian outputs specifically have helped to stop the recent decline in tanker rates. With Nigerian volumes back up to around 1.8mb/d, we have seen firmer Suezmax and VL rates (at 22k/d and 40k/d respectively). Brazil's output reached 2.6mb/d in August and is on a steady climb, which is expected to last until 2025. As internal demand has declined, exports have risen with approximately 40% of Brazil crude heading to China. Despite the adverse effect oversupply has had on prices and even though demand matching supply is rather questionable at the current state of the market, it has still offered more business for tankers and, as such, higher prices for oil won’t increase demand for it.
All in all, we will have to wait until the November official OPEC meetings for further firm developments. Given the general feeling of uncertainty and multitude of market-affecting variables in play at the moment, however, any sort of long-lasting stability seems rather farfetched.
By Linos Kogevinas
Marketing—Harbour Towage & Port Agency
Cotzias Intermodal Shipping Inc.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 23 September 16
EIA SEES U.S. COAL WEEKLY OUTPUT INCREASE
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 16.1 million short ton ...
Thursday, 22 September 16
CHINA IS THE PRICE-SETTING COUNTRY FOR GLOBAL THERMAL COAL
COALspot.com: China has been the driver of global coal growth since 2009. When China became the largest coal importer in 2011, the country also has ...
Thursday, 22 September 16
SUPRAMAXES ARE ACHIEVING AROUND $7000 FOR A TRIP WITH SINGAPORE DELIVERY VIA INDONESIA TO CHINA
Supramax
A slow start to the week in the Supramax segment in the Atlantic with not much being reported.
In the Blacksea Supramaxes are getti ...
Wednesday, 21 September 16
THE CAPESIZE MARKET HAS BEEN ON A RALLYING TREND SINCE THE END OF AUGUST - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
The Capesize market has been on a rallying trend since the end of August, fuelled mainly by the chase by traders to pre-stock before the typical pi ...
Wednesday, 21 September 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS MAKRINOS
Amidst a challenging dry bulk and tanker market, very little time has been spent on the offshore industry developments during the past couple of ye ...
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- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PTC India Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Australian Coal Association
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
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