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Wednesday, 12 October 16
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
 Another Monday has gone by, bringing with it further turbulence for oil. A series of meetings between high-production nations Russia & Saudi Arabia yielded statements signaling that a potential agreement to limit crude output is a possibility. According to Vladimir Putin “Russia is ready to join the joint measures to cap production and is calling for other oil exporters to join”. At the same time, Algeria has also called for similar measures to be taken by non-OPEC members. Following these events, and amidst speculation regarding the firming possibility of a Clinton presidency next month, oil surged to its highest levels this year, with the Brent futures reaching USD 53.73 and finally closing at USD 53.14 on Monday.
While the expectation of a possible agreement played its part in driving the futures to higher levels, the upward trend was short-lived with Brent falling back to USD 52.84 this morning. Growing doubts regarding whether the proposed measures would be enough to compensate for two years of oversupply, especially considering the higher production figures coming out of Libya, Nigeria and Iraq, have reigned in the index.
The strained relationship between OPEC members is also a concern, especially when it comes to Iran which, with its recent re-entry into the market, is looking to regain lost market share by increasing production. This comes into direct opposition with Saudi Arabia who has been adamant regarding Iran’s commitment to any such future agreement.
Furthermore, Iraq has also been looking at growing production next year and has been one of the main opponents of an agreement. Goldman Sachs issued a statement to clients regarding the increased possibility of a production cut deal but also stressing that markets are unlikely to rebalance within the year.
Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih expressed his confidence that a deal would be reached by November. However, he further stressed the need to tread carefully and responsibly in order to not shock the market too much. It is very much worth noting that a potential large increase in oil prices might allow high-cost exporters (such as US shale exporters for whom current prices are unprofitable) to resume production starting the cycle all over again. On the other hand, in case a deal is unattainable, it is quite likely that we will see levels towards the low-40s once again.
These events have also been felt in the tanker market. Nigerian and Brazilian outputs specifically have helped to stop the recent decline in tanker rates. With Nigerian volumes back up to around 1.8mb/d, we have seen firmer Suezmax and VL rates (at 22k/d and 40k/d respectively). Brazil's output reached 2.6mb/d in August and is on a steady climb, which is expected to last until 2025. As internal demand has declined, exports have risen with approximately 40% of Brazil crude heading to China. Despite the adverse effect oversupply has had on prices and even though demand matching supply is rather questionable at the current state of the market, it has still offered more business for tankers and, as such, higher prices for oil won’t increase demand for it.
All in all, we will have to wait until the November official OPEC meetings for further firm developments. Given the general feeling of uncertainty and multitude of market-affecting variables in play at the moment, however, any sort of long-lasting stability seems rather farfetched.
By Linos Kogevinas
Marketing—Harbour Towage & Port Agency
Cotzias Intermodal Shipping Inc.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 03 October 16
THERMAL COAL PRICE SHOOTS UP AND MADE THEIR VERTICAL MOVE IN 5 YEARS; PRICE RALLY CONTINUES
COALspot.com: A rally in thermal coal prices over the past few months, after years of decline, is still continuing and it is expected to rally at l ...
Monday, 03 October 16
DRY-BULK SHIPPING FREIGHTS SLIDE IN SOFTENING SPOT MARKET
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities decline slightly and ending in a negative note this past ...
Friday, 30 September 16
U.S. WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT FELL 2.3% - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 15.7 million short ton ...
Friday, 30 September 16
OPEC CUT SUPPORTS SLOW OIL RECOVERY, NOT STRONG REBOUND - FITCH
OPEC's oil production target announced this week signals the potential for greater co-ordination among its members, but the target itself is la ...
Thursday, 29 September 16
FREIGHT RATES MIGHT CONTINUE TO SLIDE NEXT WEEK DUE TO HOLIDAYS IN CHINA
Supramax
Flat start to week followed by a slight gain in rates for Supramaxes, says Fearnleys in its latest weekly report.
According to Fear ...
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- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Australian Coal Association
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- PTC India Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
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