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Wednesday, 12 October 16
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
 Another Monday has gone by, bringing with it further turbulence for oil. A series of meetings between high-production nations Russia & Saudi Arabia yielded statements signaling that a potential agreement to limit crude output is a possibility. According to Vladimir Putin “Russia is ready to join the joint measures to cap production and is calling for other oil exporters to join”. At the same time, Algeria has also called for similar measures to be taken by non-OPEC members. Following these events, and amidst speculation regarding the firming possibility of a Clinton presidency next month, oil surged to its highest levels this year, with the Brent futures reaching USD 53.73 and finally closing at USD 53.14 on Monday.
While the expectation of a possible agreement played its part in driving the futures to higher levels, the upward trend was short-lived with Brent falling back to USD 52.84 this morning. Growing doubts regarding whether the proposed measures would be enough to compensate for two years of oversupply, especially considering the higher production figures coming out of Libya, Nigeria and Iraq, have reigned in the index.
The strained relationship between OPEC members is also a concern, especially when it comes to Iran which, with its recent re-entry into the market, is looking to regain lost market share by increasing production. This comes into direct opposition with Saudi Arabia who has been adamant regarding Iran’s commitment to any such future agreement.
Furthermore, Iraq has also been looking at growing production next year and has been one of the main opponents of an agreement. Goldman Sachs issued a statement to clients regarding the increased possibility of a production cut deal but also stressing that markets are unlikely to rebalance within the year.
Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih expressed his confidence that a deal would be reached by November. However, he further stressed the need to tread carefully and responsibly in order to not shock the market too much. It is very much worth noting that a potential large increase in oil prices might allow high-cost exporters (such as US shale exporters for whom current prices are unprofitable) to resume production starting the cycle all over again. On the other hand, in case a deal is unattainable, it is quite likely that we will see levels towards the low-40s once again.
These events have also been felt in the tanker market. Nigerian and Brazilian outputs specifically have helped to stop the recent decline in tanker rates. With Nigerian volumes back up to around 1.8mb/d, we have seen firmer Suezmax and VL rates (at 22k/d and 40k/d respectively). Brazil's output reached 2.6mb/d in August and is on a steady climb, which is expected to last until 2025. As internal demand has declined, exports have risen with approximately 40% of Brazil crude heading to China. Despite the adverse effect oversupply has had on prices and even though demand matching supply is rather questionable at the current state of the market, it has still offered more business for tankers and, as such, higher prices for oil won’t increase demand for it.
All in all, we will have to wait until the November official OPEC meetings for further firm developments. Given the general feeling of uncertainty and multitude of market-affecting variables in play at the moment, however, any sort of long-lasting stability seems rather farfetched.
By Linos Kogevinas
Marketing—Harbour Towage & Port Agency
Cotzias Intermodal Shipping Inc.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 07 October 16
CEYLON SHIPPING CORPORATION HAS TAKEN DELIVERY OF COAL CARRIER MV.CEYLON PRINCESS
Sri Lanka’s Ceylon Shipping Corporation (CSC) has taken delivery of its second newly built bulk carrier for the transportation of coal to pow ...
Friday, 07 October 16
U.S. YEAR-TO-DATE COAL PRODUCTION TOTALLED AN ESTIMATED 540.5 MMST; DOWN 21.9% Y-O-Y, SAYS EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 16.7 million short ton ...
Thursday, 06 October 16
SHIPS IN PACIFIC ACHIEVE JUST ABOVE $10K DAILY FOR A BRAZIL ROUND VOYAGE - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
Slower week with limited activity due to holidays in the East. Mixed feelings within different markets, with slight downturn in Pacific ...
Wednesday, 05 October 16
OPEC TO SHUT OFF MORE THAN 6 PERCENT OF ITS PRODUCTION; MIXED FEELING AMONGST TRADERS - ALLIED
OPEC recent accord to shut off more than 6 percent of its production this past week has been met with mixed feeling amongst traders. As we mo ...
Wednesday, 05 October 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT
On September 27th the OPEC petroleum and energy ministers arrived in Algeria to attend the International Energy Forum, which brought together produ ...
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- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Economic Council, Georgia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PTC India Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Planning Commission, India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
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