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Wednesday, 12 October 16
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
 Another Monday has gone by, bringing with it further turbulence for oil. A series of meetings between high-production nations Russia & Saudi Arabia yielded statements signaling that a potential agreement to limit crude output is a possibility. According to Vladimir Putin “Russia is ready to join the joint measures to cap production and is calling for other oil exporters to join”. At the same time, Algeria has also called for similar measures to be taken by non-OPEC members. Following these events, and amidst speculation regarding the firming possibility of a Clinton presidency next month, oil surged to its highest levels this year, with the Brent futures reaching USD 53.73 and finally closing at USD 53.14 on Monday.
While the expectation of a possible agreement played its part in driving the futures to higher levels, the upward trend was short-lived with Brent falling back to USD 52.84 this morning. Growing doubts regarding whether the proposed measures would be enough to compensate for two years of oversupply, especially considering the higher production figures coming out of Libya, Nigeria and Iraq, have reigned in the index.
The strained relationship between OPEC members is also a concern, especially when it comes to Iran which, with its recent re-entry into the market, is looking to regain lost market share by increasing production. This comes into direct opposition with Saudi Arabia who has been adamant regarding Iran’s commitment to any such future agreement.
Furthermore, Iraq has also been looking at growing production next year and has been one of the main opponents of an agreement. Goldman Sachs issued a statement to clients regarding the increased possibility of a production cut deal but also stressing that markets are unlikely to rebalance within the year.
Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih expressed his confidence that a deal would be reached by November. However, he further stressed the need to tread carefully and responsibly in order to not shock the market too much. It is very much worth noting that a potential large increase in oil prices might allow high-cost exporters (such as US shale exporters for whom current prices are unprofitable) to resume production starting the cycle all over again. On the other hand, in case a deal is unattainable, it is quite likely that we will see levels towards the low-40s once again.
These events have also been felt in the tanker market. Nigerian and Brazilian outputs specifically have helped to stop the recent decline in tanker rates. With Nigerian volumes back up to around 1.8mb/d, we have seen firmer Suezmax and VL rates (at 22k/d and 40k/d respectively). Brazil's output reached 2.6mb/d in August and is on a steady climb, which is expected to last until 2025. As internal demand has declined, exports have risen with approximately 40% of Brazil crude heading to China. Despite the adverse effect oversupply has had on prices and even though demand matching supply is rather questionable at the current state of the market, it has still offered more business for tankers and, as such, higher prices for oil won’t increase demand for it.
All in all, we will have to wait until the November official OPEC meetings for further firm developments. Given the general feeling of uncertainty and multitude of market-affecting variables in play at the moment, however, any sort of long-lasting stability seems rather farfetched.
By Linos Kogevinas
Marketing—Harbour Towage & Port Agency
Cotzias Intermodal Shipping Inc.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 28 September 16
WITHOUT A DOUBT FREIGHT RATES HAVE MOVED UP A BIT TO HEALTHIER LEVELS - INTERMODAL
As we are approaching Q4, it is interesting to perform a review of the last nine months with respect to the second-hand prices of Supramax and Pana ...
Tuesday, 27 September 16
THE CAPESIZE RATE OF INCREASE HAS BEEN IMPRESSIVE, UP 39% W/W AND 123% MONTH TO DATE - ALLIED
The Dry bulk market has seen a rare shine in its performance as the capesize sector manages to rally at an unprecedented rate compared to its perfo ...
Monday, 26 September 16
COAL PRICES HAVE BEEN MOVING STEADILY HIGHER AFTER YEARS OF DECLINE
COALspot.com: A rally in thermal coal prices over the past few months, after years of decline, is still continuing and it is expected to rally at l ...
Monday, 26 September 16
THE FREIGHT MARKET WAS FIRM; ALL SEGMENTS WERE UP THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities rose and ending in a positive note this past week. The BD ...
Friday, 23 September 16
"COLLATERAL LIES" DO NOT NECESSARILY UNDERMINE AN INSURANCE CLAIM
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
An insured was not precluded from recovering under an insurance policy even though it had made a false statement during t ...
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- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Australian Coal Association
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- White Energy Company Limited
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- The University of Queensland
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
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