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Wednesday, 12 October 16
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
 Another Monday has gone by, bringing with it further turbulence for oil. A series of meetings between high-production nations Russia & Saudi Arabia yielded statements signaling that a potential agreement to limit crude output is a possibility. According to Vladimir Putin “Russia is ready to join the joint measures to cap production and is calling for other oil exporters to join”. At the same time, Algeria has also called for similar measures to be taken by non-OPEC members. Following these events, and amidst speculation regarding the firming possibility of a Clinton presidency next month, oil surged to its highest levels this year, with the Brent futures reaching USD 53.73 and finally closing at USD 53.14 on Monday.
While the expectation of a possible agreement played its part in driving the futures to higher levels, the upward trend was short-lived with Brent falling back to USD 52.84 this morning. Growing doubts regarding whether the proposed measures would be enough to compensate for two years of oversupply, especially considering the higher production figures coming out of Libya, Nigeria and Iraq, have reigned in the index.
The strained relationship between OPEC members is also a concern, especially when it comes to Iran which, with its recent re-entry into the market, is looking to regain lost market share by increasing production. This comes into direct opposition with Saudi Arabia who has been adamant regarding Iran’s commitment to any such future agreement.
Furthermore, Iraq has also been looking at growing production next year and has been one of the main opponents of an agreement. Goldman Sachs issued a statement to clients regarding the increased possibility of a production cut deal but also stressing that markets are unlikely to rebalance within the year.
Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih expressed his confidence that a deal would be reached by November. However, he further stressed the need to tread carefully and responsibly in order to not shock the market too much. It is very much worth noting that a potential large increase in oil prices might allow high-cost exporters (such as US shale exporters for whom current prices are unprofitable) to resume production starting the cycle all over again. On the other hand, in case a deal is unattainable, it is quite likely that we will see levels towards the low-40s once again.
These events have also been felt in the tanker market. Nigerian and Brazilian outputs specifically have helped to stop the recent decline in tanker rates. With Nigerian volumes back up to around 1.8mb/d, we have seen firmer Suezmax and VL rates (at 22k/d and 40k/d respectively). Brazil's output reached 2.6mb/d in August and is on a steady climb, which is expected to last until 2025. As internal demand has declined, exports have risen with approximately 40% of Brazil crude heading to China. Despite the adverse effect oversupply has had on prices and even though demand matching supply is rather questionable at the current state of the market, it has still offered more business for tankers and, as such, higher prices for oil won’t increase demand for it.
All in all, we will have to wait until the November official OPEC meetings for further firm developments. Given the general feeling of uncertainty and multitude of market-affecting variables in play at the moment, however, any sort of long-lasting stability seems rather farfetched.
By Linos Kogevinas
Marketing—Harbour Towage & Port Agency
Cotzias Intermodal Shipping Inc.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 19 September 16
AFTER YEARS OF COMA, COAL BECOMES THE MOST ATTRACTIVE COMMODITY RIGHT NOW
COALspot.com: China boosted coal imports in recent months. The Chinese government’s drive to cut over capacity pushed up the demand for therm ...
Monday, 19 September 16
THE CAPE INDEX WAS UP 7.28% WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities declined and ending in a slightly negative note this past ...
Friday, 16 September 16
GLOBAL SHIPBUILDING: THE CHALLENGE TO REMAIN 'ACTIVE' - CHRISTOPHER PEARCE, CLARKSONS
The number of ‘active’ shipyards globally has more than halved since the start of 2009, falling to around 400 shipyards at the start of ...
Friday, 16 September 16
U.S. WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT DECLINED 6.2% TO 15.1 MMST, SAYS EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 15.1 million short ton ...
Thursday, 15 September 16
INDONESIA MAY FACE A COAL CRISIS BY 2035!
COALspot.com: Indonesia is the world’s fourth-largest coal producer and the world’s largest thermal coal exporter may face a coal crisi ...
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- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
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