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Wednesday, 12 October 16
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
 Another Monday has gone by, bringing with it further turbulence for oil. A series of meetings between high-production nations Russia & Saudi Arabia yielded statements signaling that a potential agreement to limit crude output is a possibility. According to Vladimir Putin “Russia is ready to join the joint measures to cap production and is calling for other oil exporters to join”. At the same time, Algeria has also called for similar measures to be taken by non-OPEC members. Following these events, and amidst speculation regarding the firming possibility of a Clinton presidency next month, oil surged to its highest levels this year, with the Brent futures reaching USD 53.73 and finally closing at USD 53.14 on Monday.
While the expectation of a possible agreement played its part in driving the futures to higher levels, the upward trend was short-lived with Brent falling back to USD 52.84 this morning. Growing doubts regarding whether the proposed measures would be enough to compensate for two years of oversupply, especially considering the higher production figures coming out of Libya, Nigeria and Iraq, have reigned in the index.
The strained relationship between OPEC members is also a concern, especially when it comes to Iran which, with its recent re-entry into the market, is looking to regain lost market share by increasing production. This comes into direct opposition with Saudi Arabia who has been adamant regarding Iran’s commitment to any such future agreement.
Furthermore, Iraq has also been looking at growing production next year and has been one of the main opponents of an agreement. Goldman Sachs issued a statement to clients regarding the increased possibility of a production cut deal but also stressing that markets are unlikely to rebalance within the year.
Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih expressed his confidence that a deal would be reached by November. However, he further stressed the need to tread carefully and responsibly in order to not shock the market too much. It is very much worth noting that a potential large increase in oil prices might allow high-cost exporters (such as US shale exporters for whom current prices are unprofitable) to resume production starting the cycle all over again. On the other hand, in case a deal is unattainable, it is quite likely that we will see levels towards the low-40s once again.
These events have also been felt in the tanker market. Nigerian and Brazilian outputs specifically have helped to stop the recent decline in tanker rates. With Nigerian volumes back up to around 1.8mb/d, we have seen firmer Suezmax and VL rates (at 22k/d and 40k/d respectively). Brazil's output reached 2.6mb/d in August and is on a steady climb, which is expected to last until 2025. As internal demand has declined, exports have risen with approximately 40% of Brazil crude heading to China. Despite the adverse effect oversupply has had on prices and even though demand matching supply is rather questionable at the current state of the market, it has still offered more business for tankers and, as such, higher prices for oil won’t increase demand for it.
All in all, we will have to wait until the November official OPEC meetings for further firm developments. Given the general feeling of uncertainty and multitude of market-affecting variables in play at the moment, however, any sort of long-lasting stability seems rather farfetched.
By Linos Kogevinas
Marketing—Harbour Towage & Port Agency
Cotzias Intermodal Shipping Inc.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 09 September 16
U.S. WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT DECLINED SLIGHTLY TO 16.1 MMST, EIA SAYS
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 16.1 million short ton ...
Friday, 09 September 16
CAPESIZE: THE SENTIMENT IS SOLID, SAYS FEARNLEYS
Supramax
A quiet start with Labour Day celebrations in the United States leading to very little being reported from the Atlantic basin. Supramaxe ...
Thursday, 08 September 16
U.S. COAL EXPORTS IN JUNE 2016 UP 29% COMPARED TO MAY 2016, SAYS EIA
U.S. coal production in August was 71 million short tons (MMst), which is 6 MMst (9%) higher than in the previous month and 12 MMst (14%) lower tha ...
Wednesday, 07 September 16
WEEKLY MARKET (TANKER) REPORT - INTERMODAL
What goes around comes around! The Shipping industry is infamous for its seasonality and cyclicality and the tanker sector is no exception to these ...
Tuesday, 06 September 16
INDO GOVT. SETS SEPTEMBER COAL REFERENCE PRICE AT US$ 63.93 PER TON; JUMP 20.17% YTD
COALspot.com: The Indonesia coal benchmark price hits to its highest level since April 2015. The government declared benchmark prices f ...
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- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The University of Queensland
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
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