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Wednesday, 12 October 16
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
 Another Monday has gone by, bringing with it further turbulence for oil. A series of meetings between high-production nations Russia & Saudi Arabia yielded statements signaling that a potential agreement to limit crude output is a possibility. According to Vladimir Putin “Russia is ready to join the joint measures to cap production and is calling for other oil exporters to join”. At the same time, Algeria has also called for similar measures to be taken by non-OPEC members. Following these events, and amidst speculation regarding the firming possibility of a Clinton presidency next month, oil surged to its highest levels this year, with the Brent futures reaching USD 53.73 and finally closing at USD 53.14 on Monday.
While the expectation of a possible agreement played its part in driving the futures to higher levels, the upward trend was short-lived with Brent falling back to USD 52.84 this morning. Growing doubts regarding whether the proposed measures would be enough to compensate for two years of oversupply, especially considering the higher production figures coming out of Libya, Nigeria and Iraq, have reigned in the index.
The strained relationship between OPEC members is also a concern, especially when it comes to Iran which, with its recent re-entry into the market, is looking to regain lost market share by increasing production. This comes into direct opposition with Saudi Arabia who has been adamant regarding Iran’s commitment to any such future agreement.
Furthermore, Iraq has also been looking at growing production next year and has been one of the main opponents of an agreement. Goldman Sachs issued a statement to clients regarding the increased possibility of a production cut deal but also stressing that markets are unlikely to rebalance within the year.
Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih expressed his confidence that a deal would be reached by November. However, he further stressed the need to tread carefully and responsibly in order to not shock the market too much. It is very much worth noting that a potential large increase in oil prices might allow high-cost exporters (such as US shale exporters for whom current prices are unprofitable) to resume production starting the cycle all over again. On the other hand, in case a deal is unattainable, it is quite likely that we will see levels towards the low-40s once again.
These events have also been felt in the tanker market. Nigerian and Brazilian outputs specifically have helped to stop the recent decline in tanker rates. With Nigerian volumes back up to around 1.8mb/d, we have seen firmer Suezmax and VL rates (at 22k/d and 40k/d respectively). Brazil's output reached 2.6mb/d in August and is on a steady climb, which is expected to last until 2025. As internal demand has declined, exports have risen with approximately 40% of Brazil crude heading to China. Despite the adverse effect oversupply has had on prices and even though demand matching supply is rather questionable at the current state of the market, it has still offered more business for tankers and, as such, higher prices for oil won’t increase demand for it.
All in all, we will have to wait until the November official OPEC meetings for further firm developments. Given the general feeling of uncertainty and multitude of market-affecting variables in play at the moment, however, any sort of long-lasting stability seems rather farfetched.
By Linos Kogevinas
Marketing—Harbour Towage & Port Agency
Cotzias Intermodal Shipping Inc.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 18 October 16
COAL PRICES KEPT CLIMBING
COALspot.com: A rally in thermal coal prices over the past few months, after years of decline, is still continuing and it is expected to rally at l ...
Tuesday, 18 October 16
PANAMAX: A FAIRLY POSITIVE END TO THE WEEK - ALLIED
Capesize
Things seemed to be moving sideways during the first half of the week, with resistance being felt as owners tried to resist any further ...
Monday, 17 October 16
THE FREIGHT MARKET WAS SOFTENED IN ALL SEGMENTS THIS PAST WEEK - VISTAAR
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities decline slightly and ending in a negative note this past ...
Friday, 14 October 16
SUPRAMAXES: DELIVERY SINGAPORE ARE SETTLING AROUND HIGH 6K'S FOR COAL TRIPS TO CHINA VIA INDO - FEARNLEY
Supramax
Wait and see attitude prevailing all over the market.
There have been several fresh cargoes, which have been efficiently covered by ...
Friday, 14 October 16
U.S. SHIPPED 3.3 MMST COAL IN JULY 2016; DECLINE 40% M/M
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 16.6 million short ton ...
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- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
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- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
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- Parliament of New Zealand
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- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
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- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
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- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
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- The Treasury - Australian Government
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- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
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- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
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- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
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- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
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- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
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- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
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- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- The University of Queensland
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
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- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Planning Commission, India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
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- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
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- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
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