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Wednesday, 12 October 16
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
 Another Monday has gone by, bringing with it further turbulence for oil. A series of meetings between high-production nations Russia & Saudi Arabia yielded statements signaling that a potential agreement to limit crude output is a possibility. According to Vladimir Putin “Russia is ready to join the joint measures to cap production and is calling for other oil exporters to join”. At the same time, Algeria has also called for similar measures to be taken by non-OPEC members. Following these events, and amidst speculation regarding the firming possibility of a Clinton presidency next month, oil surged to its highest levels this year, with the Brent futures reaching USD 53.73 and finally closing at USD 53.14 on Monday.
While the expectation of a possible agreement played its part in driving the futures to higher levels, the upward trend was short-lived with Brent falling back to USD 52.84 this morning. Growing doubts regarding whether the proposed measures would be enough to compensate for two years of oversupply, especially considering the higher production figures coming out of Libya, Nigeria and Iraq, have reigned in the index.
The strained relationship between OPEC members is also a concern, especially when it comes to Iran which, with its recent re-entry into the market, is looking to regain lost market share by increasing production. This comes into direct opposition with Saudi Arabia who has been adamant regarding Iran’s commitment to any such future agreement.
Furthermore, Iraq has also been looking at growing production next year and has been one of the main opponents of an agreement. Goldman Sachs issued a statement to clients regarding the increased possibility of a production cut deal but also stressing that markets are unlikely to rebalance within the year.
Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih expressed his confidence that a deal would be reached by November. However, he further stressed the need to tread carefully and responsibly in order to not shock the market too much. It is very much worth noting that a potential large increase in oil prices might allow high-cost exporters (such as US shale exporters for whom current prices are unprofitable) to resume production starting the cycle all over again. On the other hand, in case a deal is unattainable, it is quite likely that we will see levels towards the low-40s once again.
These events have also been felt in the tanker market. Nigerian and Brazilian outputs specifically have helped to stop the recent decline in tanker rates. With Nigerian volumes back up to around 1.8mb/d, we have seen firmer Suezmax and VL rates (at 22k/d and 40k/d respectively). Brazil's output reached 2.6mb/d in August and is on a steady climb, which is expected to last until 2025. As internal demand has declined, exports have risen with approximately 40% of Brazil crude heading to China. Despite the adverse effect oversupply has had on prices and even though demand matching supply is rather questionable at the current state of the market, it has still offered more business for tankers and, as such, higher prices for oil won’t increase demand for it.
All in all, we will have to wait until the November official OPEC meetings for further firm developments. Given the general feeling of uncertainty and multitude of market-affecting variables in play at the moment, however, any sort of long-lasting stability seems rather farfetched.
By Linos Kogevinas
Marketing—Harbour Towage & Port Agency
Cotzias Intermodal Shipping Inc.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 12 October 16
INDIAN STEELMAKERS' DELEVERAGING AT RISK ON COKING COAL PRICE JUMP - FITCH
The sharp increase in coking coal prices since August 2016 could squeeze Indian steelmakers' profitability and threaten their deleveraging, Fit ...
Wednesday, 12 October 16
UK SEABORNE COAL IMPORT PLUNGES 64% AS A WORRYING TREND LURKS - BIMCO
The main exporters of thermal coal for coal- fired power plants to the United Kingdom (UK) have experienced a heavy decline in seaborne cargo volum ...
Monday, 10 October 16
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE HITS HIGHEST LEVELS SINCE SEPTEMBER 2014
COALspot.com: The Indonesia coal benchmark price hits to its highest level since September 2014. The government declared benchmark prices for Indon ...
Monday, 10 October 16
THE FREIGHT MARKET FIRMS UP ON STRONG CAPE PERFORMANCE
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities rose again and ending in a positive note this past week. ...
Friday, 07 October 16
INDONESIA'S DEMAND FOR COAL REMAINS STRONG: BP
Indonesia's domestic demand for coal shows no sign of slowing down as the country is banking on its coal abundance to meet the country' ...
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- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- White Energy Company Limited
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Planning Commission, India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- The University of Queensland
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- MS Steel International - UAE
- VISA Power Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
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