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Wednesday, 12 October 16
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
 Another Monday has gone by, bringing with it further turbulence for oil. A series of meetings between high-production nations Russia & Saudi Arabia yielded statements signaling that a potential agreement to limit crude output is a possibility. According to Vladimir Putin “Russia is ready to join the joint measures to cap production and is calling for other oil exporters to join”. At the same time, Algeria has also called for similar measures to be taken by non-OPEC members. Following these events, and amidst speculation regarding the firming possibility of a Clinton presidency next month, oil surged to its highest levels this year, with the Brent futures reaching USD 53.73 and finally closing at USD 53.14 on Monday.
While the expectation of a possible agreement played its part in driving the futures to higher levels, the upward trend was short-lived with Brent falling back to USD 52.84 this morning. Growing doubts regarding whether the proposed measures would be enough to compensate for two years of oversupply, especially considering the higher production figures coming out of Libya, Nigeria and Iraq, have reigned in the index.
The strained relationship between OPEC members is also a concern, especially when it comes to Iran which, with its recent re-entry into the market, is looking to regain lost market share by increasing production. This comes into direct opposition with Saudi Arabia who has been adamant regarding Iran’s commitment to any such future agreement.
Furthermore, Iraq has also been looking at growing production next year and has been one of the main opponents of an agreement. Goldman Sachs issued a statement to clients regarding the increased possibility of a production cut deal but also stressing that markets are unlikely to rebalance within the year.
Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih expressed his confidence that a deal would be reached by November. However, he further stressed the need to tread carefully and responsibly in order to not shock the market too much. It is very much worth noting that a potential large increase in oil prices might allow high-cost exporters (such as US shale exporters for whom current prices are unprofitable) to resume production starting the cycle all over again. On the other hand, in case a deal is unattainable, it is quite likely that we will see levels towards the low-40s once again.
These events have also been felt in the tanker market. Nigerian and Brazilian outputs specifically have helped to stop the recent decline in tanker rates. With Nigerian volumes back up to around 1.8mb/d, we have seen firmer Suezmax and VL rates (at 22k/d and 40k/d respectively). Brazil's output reached 2.6mb/d in August and is on a steady climb, which is expected to last until 2025. As internal demand has declined, exports have risen with approximately 40% of Brazil crude heading to China. Despite the adverse effect oversupply has had on prices and even though demand matching supply is rather questionable at the current state of the market, it has still offered more business for tankers and, as such, higher prices for oil won’t increase demand for it.
All in all, we will have to wait until the November official OPEC meetings for further firm developments. Given the general feeling of uncertainty and multitude of market-affecting variables in play at the moment, however, any sort of long-lasting stability seems rather farfetched.
By Linos Kogevinas
Marketing—Harbour Towage & Port Agency
Cotzias Intermodal Shipping Inc.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 12 October 16
INDIAN STEELMAKERS' DELEVERAGING AT RISK ON COKING COAL PRICE JUMP - FITCH
The sharp increase in coking coal prices since August 2016 could squeeze Indian steelmakers' profitability and threaten their deleveraging, Fit ...
Wednesday, 12 October 16
UK SEABORNE COAL IMPORT PLUNGES 64% AS A WORRYING TREND LURKS - BIMCO
The main exporters of thermal coal for coal- fired power plants to the United Kingdom (UK) have experienced a heavy decline in seaborne cargo volum ...
Monday, 10 October 16
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE HITS HIGHEST LEVELS SINCE SEPTEMBER 2014
COALspot.com: The Indonesia coal benchmark price hits to its highest level since September 2014. The government declared benchmark prices for Indon ...
Monday, 10 October 16
THE FREIGHT MARKET FIRMS UP ON STRONG CAPE PERFORMANCE
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities rose again and ending in a positive note this past week. ...
Friday, 07 October 16
INDONESIA'S DEMAND FOR COAL REMAINS STRONG: BP
Indonesia's domestic demand for coal shows no sign of slowing down as the country is banking on its coal abundance to meet the country' ...
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- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- White Energy Company Limited
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Planning Commission, India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Australian Coal Association
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
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