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Wednesday, 12 October 16
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
 Another Monday has gone by, bringing with it further turbulence for oil. A series of meetings between high-production nations Russia & Saudi Arabia yielded statements signaling that a potential agreement to limit crude output is a possibility. According to Vladimir Putin “Russia is ready to join the joint measures to cap production and is calling for other oil exporters to join”. At the same time, Algeria has also called for similar measures to be taken by non-OPEC members. Following these events, and amidst speculation regarding the firming possibility of a Clinton presidency next month, oil surged to its highest levels this year, with the Brent futures reaching USD 53.73 and finally closing at USD 53.14 on Monday.
While the expectation of a possible agreement played its part in driving the futures to higher levels, the upward trend was short-lived with Brent falling back to USD 52.84 this morning. Growing doubts regarding whether the proposed measures would be enough to compensate for two years of oversupply, especially considering the higher production figures coming out of Libya, Nigeria and Iraq, have reigned in the index.
The strained relationship between OPEC members is also a concern, especially when it comes to Iran which, with its recent re-entry into the market, is looking to regain lost market share by increasing production. This comes into direct opposition with Saudi Arabia who has been adamant regarding Iran’s commitment to any such future agreement.
Furthermore, Iraq has also been looking at growing production next year and has been one of the main opponents of an agreement. Goldman Sachs issued a statement to clients regarding the increased possibility of a production cut deal but also stressing that markets are unlikely to rebalance within the year.
Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih expressed his confidence that a deal would be reached by November. However, he further stressed the need to tread carefully and responsibly in order to not shock the market too much. It is very much worth noting that a potential large increase in oil prices might allow high-cost exporters (such as US shale exporters for whom current prices are unprofitable) to resume production starting the cycle all over again. On the other hand, in case a deal is unattainable, it is quite likely that we will see levels towards the low-40s once again.
These events have also been felt in the tanker market. Nigerian and Brazilian outputs specifically have helped to stop the recent decline in tanker rates. With Nigerian volumes back up to around 1.8mb/d, we have seen firmer Suezmax and VL rates (at 22k/d and 40k/d respectively). Brazil's output reached 2.6mb/d in August and is on a steady climb, which is expected to last until 2025. As internal demand has declined, exports have risen with approximately 40% of Brazil crude heading to China. Despite the adverse effect oversupply has had on prices and even though demand matching supply is rather questionable at the current state of the market, it has still offered more business for tankers and, as such, higher prices for oil won’t increase demand for it.
All in all, we will have to wait until the November official OPEC meetings for further firm developments. Given the general feeling of uncertainty and multitude of market-affecting variables in play at the moment, however, any sort of long-lasting stability seems rather farfetched.
By Linos Kogevinas
Marketing—Harbour Towage & Port Agency
Cotzias Intermodal Shipping Inc.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 24 October 16
U.S WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION DECLINED 3.2% TO 16 MMST WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 16 million short tons ...
Monday, 24 October 16
DRY BULK:MARKET ENDS WEEK WITH MIXED REACTIONS
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities ending with mixed direction as Cape and BDI was declined ...
Thursday, 20 October 16
THE PORT OF NEWCASTLE SHIPPED 16.97 PERCENT MORE COAL IN SEPTEMBER
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export port has shipped $AU 1,216.7 m ...
Thursday, 20 October 16
A SUPRAMAX HAVE BEEN FIXED AT $12,500 FOR A INDIA TO BANGLADESH TRIP - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
A bit more activities with modest upturn in rates.
According to Fearnleys weekly report, US Gulf trip to Skaw-Passero has seen cons ...
Wednesday, 19 October 16
THE SHIPPING MARKET IS IN A WAIT AND SEE MODE - INTERMODAL
We are now heading towards the end of a rather volatile 2016 for the dry bulk segment. During the last 10 months there were never any clear indicat ...
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- MS Steel International - UAE
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- White Energy Company Limited
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
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