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Wednesday, 12 October 16
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
 Another Monday has gone by, bringing with it further turbulence for oil. A series of meetings between high-production nations Russia & Saudi Arabia yielded statements signaling that a potential agreement to limit crude output is a possibility. According to Vladimir Putin “Russia is ready to join the joint measures to cap production and is calling for other oil exporters to join”. At the same time, Algeria has also called for similar measures to be taken by non-OPEC members. Following these events, and amidst speculation regarding the firming possibility of a Clinton presidency next month, oil surged to its highest levels this year, with the Brent futures reaching USD 53.73 and finally closing at USD 53.14 on Monday.
While the expectation of a possible agreement played its part in driving the futures to higher levels, the upward trend was short-lived with Brent falling back to USD 52.84 this morning. Growing doubts regarding whether the proposed measures would be enough to compensate for two years of oversupply, especially considering the higher production figures coming out of Libya, Nigeria and Iraq, have reigned in the index.
The strained relationship between OPEC members is also a concern, especially when it comes to Iran which, with its recent re-entry into the market, is looking to regain lost market share by increasing production. This comes into direct opposition with Saudi Arabia who has been adamant regarding Iran’s commitment to any such future agreement.
Furthermore, Iraq has also been looking at growing production next year and has been one of the main opponents of an agreement. Goldman Sachs issued a statement to clients regarding the increased possibility of a production cut deal but also stressing that markets are unlikely to rebalance within the year.
Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih expressed his confidence that a deal would be reached by November. However, he further stressed the need to tread carefully and responsibly in order to not shock the market too much. It is very much worth noting that a potential large increase in oil prices might allow high-cost exporters (such as US shale exporters for whom current prices are unprofitable) to resume production starting the cycle all over again. On the other hand, in case a deal is unattainable, it is quite likely that we will see levels towards the low-40s once again.
These events have also been felt in the tanker market. Nigerian and Brazilian outputs specifically have helped to stop the recent decline in tanker rates. With Nigerian volumes back up to around 1.8mb/d, we have seen firmer Suezmax and VL rates (at 22k/d and 40k/d respectively). Brazil's output reached 2.6mb/d in August and is on a steady climb, which is expected to last until 2025. As internal demand has declined, exports have risen with approximately 40% of Brazil crude heading to China. Despite the adverse effect oversupply has had on prices and even though demand matching supply is rather questionable at the current state of the market, it has still offered more business for tankers and, as such, higher prices for oil won’t increase demand for it.
All in all, we will have to wait until the November official OPEC meetings for further firm developments. Given the general feeling of uncertainty and multitude of market-affecting variables in play at the moment, however, any sort of long-lasting stability seems rather farfetched.
By Linos Kogevinas
Marketing—Harbour Towage & Port Agency
Cotzias Intermodal Shipping Inc.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 01 November 16
IMPROVEMENT ON THE DEMAND SIDE ONLY BUT THE SUPPLY SIDE IS WORSE OFF - BIMCO
Back in May, BIMCO disclosed a projected “road to recovery” for the dry bulk shipping industry. The main message back then on what the ...
Monday, 31 October 16
INDONESIAN 5000 GAR COAL ROSE 5.56% WEEK OVER WEEK - CS COAL INDEX
COALspot.com: The price for thermal coal has recovered substantially since April 2016. The China’s new policy on its domestic coal miners, th ...
Friday, 28 October 16
STEAM COAL IMPORTS: CHINA AND INDIA'S ROLE REVERSALS - BEN TRIMMEL
While a sharp decline in European imports is a key driver of the expected fall in steam coal trade this year, China and India remain leading actors ...
Friday, 28 October 16
U.S. WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT ROSE DURING THE WEEK ENDING OCTOBER 22 - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 16.5 million short ton ...
Thursday, 27 October 16
73.08 PERCENT OF COAL PRODUCERS PREDICTED INDIA WILL NOT STOP COAL IMPORTS IN 2 TO 3 YEARS - POLL
COALspot released its weekly opinion poll "How likely do you think India will STOP thermal coal imports in 2-3 years?" this Monday.
...
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- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- VISA Power Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Planning Commission, India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
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