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Wednesday, 12 October 16
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
 Another Monday has gone by, bringing with it further turbulence for oil. A series of meetings between high-production nations Russia & Saudi Arabia yielded statements signaling that a potential agreement to limit crude output is a possibility. According to Vladimir Putin “Russia is ready to join the joint measures to cap production and is calling for other oil exporters to join”. At the same time, Algeria has also called for similar measures to be taken by non-OPEC members. Following these events, and amidst speculation regarding the firming possibility of a Clinton presidency next month, oil surged to its highest levels this year, with the Brent futures reaching USD 53.73 and finally closing at USD 53.14 on Monday.
While the expectation of a possible agreement played its part in driving the futures to higher levels, the upward trend was short-lived with Brent falling back to USD 52.84 this morning. Growing doubts regarding whether the proposed measures would be enough to compensate for two years of oversupply, especially considering the higher production figures coming out of Libya, Nigeria and Iraq, have reigned in the index.
The strained relationship between OPEC members is also a concern, especially when it comes to Iran which, with its recent re-entry into the market, is looking to regain lost market share by increasing production. This comes into direct opposition with Saudi Arabia who has been adamant regarding Iran’s commitment to any such future agreement.
Furthermore, Iraq has also been looking at growing production next year and has been one of the main opponents of an agreement. Goldman Sachs issued a statement to clients regarding the increased possibility of a production cut deal but also stressing that markets are unlikely to rebalance within the year.
Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih expressed his confidence that a deal would be reached by November. However, he further stressed the need to tread carefully and responsibly in order to not shock the market too much. It is very much worth noting that a potential large increase in oil prices might allow high-cost exporters (such as US shale exporters for whom current prices are unprofitable) to resume production starting the cycle all over again. On the other hand, in case a deal is unattainable, it is quite likely that we will see levels towards the low-40s once again.
These events have also been felt in the tanker market. Nigerian and Brazilian outputs specifically have helped to stop the recent decline in tanker rates. With Nigerian volumes back up to around 1.8mb/d, we have seen firmer Suezmax and VL rates (at 22k/d and 40k/d respectively). Brazil's output reached 2.6mb/d in August and is on a steady climb, which is expected to last until 2025. As internal demand has declined, exports have risen with approximately 40% of Brazil crude heading to China. Despite the adverse effect oversupply has had on prices and even though demand matching supply is rather questionable at the current state of the market, it has still offered more business for tankers and, as such, higher prices for oil won’t increase demand for it.
All in all, we will have to wait until the November official OPEC meetings for further firm developments. Given the general feeling of uncertainty and multitude of market-affecting variables in play at the moment, however, any sort of long-lasting stability seems rather farfetched.
By Linos Kogevinas
Marketing—Harbour Towage & Port Agency
Cotzias Intermodal Shipping Inc.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 03 November 16
THE INDEX BASED COAL SALES & PURCHASE STRATEGY MAKES MORE EFFICIENT, SAYS 55.17% END-USERS
Considering the current coal market condition, the Index based coal sales & purchase strategy make more efficient was deemed the winner by 57.0 ...
Thursday, 03 November 16
CAPESIZE: BRAZIL/CHINA RATES MOVED TO THE $11 PMT LEVEL; WEST AUSTRALIA/CHINA ROUTE MOVED UP CLOSE TO MID $5 PMT LEVEL - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
In the Atlantic we see a bit more activity than in the eastern hemisphere, says Fearnleys in its latest weekly report. Fhauls via Black ...
Wednesday, 02 November 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT
A week before the U.S. presidential election, everyone is eager to see the socio-political effects that the result of these elections will have. As ...
Wednesday, 02 November 16
SHIP OPERATING COSTS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE IN BOTH 2016 AND 2017 - MOORE STEPHENS
Vessel operating costs are expected to rise in both 2016 and 2017. Repairs and maintenance and spares are the cost categories which are likely to i ...
Tuesday, 01 November 16
PANAMAX : A FAIR AMOUNT OF SIDEWAYS SHIPPING IN RATES - ALLIED SHIPPING
Capesize
A very sluggish start to the week, with rates dropping considerably as all optimism seems to have evaporated over the weekend. According ...
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- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
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