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Wednesday, 12 October 16
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
 Another Monday has gone by, bringing with it further turbulence for oil. A series of meetings between high-production nations Russia & Saudi Arabia yielded statements signaling that a potential agreement to limit crude output is a possibility. According to Vladimir Putin “Russia is ready to join the joint measures to cap production and is calling for other oil exporters to join”. At the same time, Algeria has also called for similar measures to be taken by non-OPEC members. Following these events, and amidst speculation regarding the firming possibility of a Clinton presidency next month, oil surged to its highest levels this year, with the Brent futures reaching USD 53.73 and finally closing at USD 53.14 on Monday.
While the expectation of a possible agreement played its part in driving the futures to higher levels, the upward trend was short-lived with Brent falling back to USD 52.84 this morning. Growing doubts regarding whether the proposed measures would be enough to compensate for two years of oversupply, especially considering the higher production figures coming out of Libya, Nigeria and Iraq, have reigned in the index.
The strained relationship between OPEC members is also a concern, especially when it comes to Iran which, with its recent re-entry into the market, is looking to regain lost market share by increasing production. This comes into direct opposition with Saudi Arabia who has been adamant regarding Iran’s commitment to any such future agreement.
Furthermore, Iraq has also been looking at growing production next year and has been one of the main opponents of an agreement. Goldman Sachs issued a statement to clients regarding the increased possibility of a production cut deal but also stressing that markets are unlikely to rebalance within the year.
Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih expressed his confidence that a deal would be reached by November. However, he further stressed the need to tread carefully and responsibly in order to not shock the market too much. It is very much worth noting that a potential large increase in oil prices might allow high-cost exporters (such as US shale exporters for whom current prices are unprofitable) to resume production starting the cycle all over again. On the other hand, in case a deal is unattainable, it is quite likely that we will see levels towards the low-40s once again.
These events have also been felt in the tanker market. Nigerian and Brazilian outputs specifically have helped to stop the recent decline in tanker rates. With Nigerian volumes back up to around 1.8mb/d, we have seen firmer Suezmax and VL rates (at 22k/d and 40k/d respectively). Brazil's output reached 2.6mb/d in August and is on a steady climb, which is expected to last until 2025. As internal demand has declined, exports have risen with approximately 40% of Brazil crude heading to China. Despite the adverse effect oversupply has had on prices and even though demand matching supply is rather questionable at the current state of the market, it has still offered more business for tankers and, as such, higher prices for oil won’t increase demand for it.
All in all, we will have to wait until the November official OPEC meetings for further firm developments. Given the general feeling of uncertainty and multitude of market-affecting variables in play at the moment, however, any sort of long-lasting stability seems rather farfetched.
By Linos Kogevinas
Marketing—Harbour Towage & Port Agency
Cotzias Intermodal Shipping Inc.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 07 November 16
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE ROSE 59.57 PER CENT YEAR TO MONTH
COALspot.com: The Indonesia coal benchmark price hits to its highest level since May 2013. The government declared benchmark prices for Indo ...
Monday, 07 November 16
HANDYSIZE: THE ASIAN INDICES RECORDED A GRADUAL DROP EVERY DAY - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A rumour-fuelled market this week but essentially rates a touch firmer and owners cautiously optimistic. The flotilla of vessels heading ...
Monday, 07 November 16
THE SUPRAMAX CHARTER RATES FOR INDONESIA TO INDIA WERE RATING AT AROUND $7500-8000 A DAY
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities rose slightly and ending in a positive note this past wee ...
Friday, 04 November 16
U.S COAL PRODUCTION UP WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 17 million short tons ...
Friday, 04 November 16
INDONESIAN INFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPMENT TRENDS ARE UNANIMOUSLY AFFIRMED
Press Release: October 20-21, 2016 Indonesia Infrastructure Summit (IIC) opened at the Hyatt Hotel in Jakarta The theme of the meeting was "Pr ...
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- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- The University of Queensland
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
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