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Wednesday, 12 October 16
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
 Another Monday has gone by, bringing with it further turbulence for oil. A series of meetings between high-production nations Russia & Saudi Arabia yielded statements signaling that a potential agreement to limit crude output is a possibility. According to Vladimir Putin “Russia is ready to join the joint measures to cap production and is calling for other oil exporters to join”. At the same time, Algeria has also called for similar measures to be taken by non-OPEC members. Following these events, and amidst speculation regarding the firming possibility of a Clinton presidency next month, oil surged to its highest levels this year, with the Brent futures reaching USD 53.73 and finally closing at USD 53.14 on Monday.
While the expectation of a possible agreement played its part in driving the futures to higher levels, the upward trend was short-lived with Brent falling back to USD 52.84 this morning. Growing doubts regarding whether the proposed measures would be enough to compensate for two years of oversupply, especially considering the higher production figures coming out of Libya, Nigeria and Iraq, have reigned in the index.
The strained relationship between OPEC members is also a concern, especially when it comes to Iran which, with its recent re-entry into the market, is looking to regain lost market share by increasing production. This comes into direct opposition with Saudi Arabia who has been adamant regarding Iran’s commitment to any such future agreement.
Furthermore, Iraq has also been looking at growing production next year and has been one of the main opponents of an agreement. Goldman Sachs issued a statement to clients regarding the increased possibility of a production cut deal but also stressing that markets are unlikely to rebalance within the year.
Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih expressed his confidence that a deal would be reached by November. However, he further stressed the need to tread carefully and responsibly in order to not shock the market too much. It is very much worth noting that a potential large increase in oil prices might allow high-cost exporters (such as US shale exporters for whom current prices are unprofitable) to resume production starting the cycle all over again. On the other hand, in case a deal is unattainable, it is quite likely that we will see levels towards the low-40s once again.
These events have also been felt in the tanker market. Nigerian and Brazilian outputs specifically have helped to stop the recent decline in tanker rates. With Nigerian volumes back up to around 1.8mb/d, we have seen firmer Suezmax and VL rates (at 22k/d and 40k/d respectively). Brazil's output reached 2.6mb/d in August and is on a steady climb, which is expected to last until 2025. As internal demand has declined, exports have risen with approximately 40% of Brazil crude heading to China. Despite the adverse effect oversupply has had on prices and even though demand matching supply is rather questionable at the current state of the market, it has still offered more business for tankers and, as such, higher prices for oil won’t increase demand for it.
All in all, we will have to wait until the November official OPEC meetings for further firm developments. Given the general feeling of uncertainty and multitude of market-affecting variables in play at the moment, however, any sort of long-lasting stability seems rather farfetched.
By Linos Kogevinas
Marketing—Harbour Towage & Port Agency
Cotzias Intermodal Shipping Inc.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 10 November 16
WILL TRUMP VICTORY PROVIDE A BOOST FOR HYDROCARBON & COAL INDUSTRIES? - DOUGLAS-WESTWOOD
Donald Trump’s surprise victory ends months of an adversarial presidential campaign with bitter disagreements between the two major candidate ...
Thursday, 10 November 16
PANAMAX: NO TRUMP INFLUENCE YET, AND THE MARKET IS HEADING NORTH - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
Pacific Supra market still soft and falling this week, although seems to be in a somewhat slower pace compared to last week. According t ...
Wednesday, 09 November 16
SINGAPORE'S SGX COMPLETES ACQUISITION OF LONDON'S BALTIC EXCHANGE
COALspot.com: Singapore Exchange Limited and The Baltic Exchange Limited together announced that the acquisition of the Baltic Exchange by SGX has ...
Wednesday, 09 November 16
SUPRAMAX: 50% INCREASE ON AVERAGE SINCE THE FIRST QUARTER OF THE YEAR - GIANNIS ANDRITSOPOULOS
Last week was an interesting one for the tanker market, which following the explosion of the gas pipeline in Alabama witnessed a spike in Atlantic ...
Tuesday, 08 November 16
S.KOREA'S KOMIPO ISSUES TENDER TO BUY 390K TONS OF BITUMINOUS COAL FOR JAN-FEB 2017
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued a new tender for 390,000 Metric Tons of Bituminous Coal for its B ...
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- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Australian Coal Association
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
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