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Wednesday, 12 October 16
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
 Another Monday has gone by, bringing with it further turbulence for oil. A series of meetings between high-production nations Russia & Saudi Arabia yielded statements signaling that a potential agreement to limit crude output is a possibility. According to Vladimir Putin “Russia is ready to join the joint measures to cap production and is calling for other oil exporters to join”. At the same time, Algeria has also called for similar measures to be taken by non-OPEC members. Following these events, and amidst speculation regarding the firming possibility of a Clinton presidency next month, oil surged to its highest levels this year, with the Brent futures reaching USD 53.73 and finally closing at USD 53.14 on Monday.
While the expectation of a possible agreement played its part in driving the futures to higher levels, the upward trend was short-lived with Brent falling back to USD 52.84 this morning. Growing doubts regarding whether the proposed measures would be enough to compensate for two years of oversupply, especially considering the higher production figures coming out of Libya, Nigeria and Iraq, have reigned in the index.
The strained relationship between OPEC members is also a concern, especially when it comes to Iran which, with its recent re-entry into the market, is looking to regain lost market share by increasing production. This comes into direct opposition with Saudi Arabia who has been adamant regarding Iran’s commitment to any such future agreement.
Furthermore, Iraq has also been looking at growing production next year and has been one of the main opponents of an agreement. Goldman Sachs issued a statement to clients regarding the increased possibility of a production cut deal but also stressing that markets are unlikely to rebalance within the year.
Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih expressed his confidence that a deal would be reached by November. However, he further stressed the need to tread carefully and responsibly in order to not shock the market too much. It is very much worth noting that a potential large increase in oil prices might allow high-cost exporters (such as US shale exporters for whom current prices are unprofitable) to resume production starting the cycle all over again. On the other hand, in case a deal is unattainable, it is quite likely that we will see levels towards the low-40s once again.
These events have also been felt in the tanker market. Nigerian and Brazilian outputs specifically have helped to stop the recent decline in tanker rates. With Nigerian volumes back up to around 1.8mb/d, we have seen firmer Suezmax and VL rates (at 22k/d and 40k/d respectively). Brazil's output reached 2.6mb/d in August and is on a steady climb, which is expected to last until 2025. As internal demand has declined, exports have risen with approximately 40% of Brazil crude heading to China. Despite the adverse effect oversupply has had on prices and even though demand matching supply is rather questionable at the current state of the market, it has still offered more business for tankers and, as such, higher prices for oil won’t increase demand for it.
All in all, we will have to wait until the November official OPEC meetings for further firm developments. Given the general feeling of uncertainty and multitude of market-affecting variables in play at the moment, however, any sort of long-lasting stability seems rather farfetched.
By Linos Kogevinas
Marketing—Harbour Towage & Port Agency
Cotzias Intermodal Shipping Inc.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 18 November 16
U.S. WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION TOTALS 16.8 MMST, DOWN 0.8%, SAYS EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 16.8 million short ton ...
Thursday, 17 November 16
FROTHY THERMAL COAL PRICES POINT TO DOWNSIDE PRESSURES IN 2017 - FITCH
Fitch Ratings says in an Outlook Report that the Asian thermal coal industry will remain under pressure in 2017 due to more-than-adequate capacity ...
Thursday, 17 November 16
CHINA STEEL EXPORTS TO REMAIN HIGH IN 2017, FITCH SAYS
Fitch Ratings expects Chinese steel exports to remain at around 100 million metric tons (Mt) in 2017, due to flat 'apparent' consumption an ...
Wednesday, 16 November 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT
Going through a relatively interesting second half of the year so far in the ship repair sector, we are experiencing a volatile climate of differen ...
Tuesday, 15 November 16
CHINA, FOR MANY YEARS NOW HAS SERVED AS A MAJOR GROWTH ENGINE FOR ASIA - ALLIED SHIPPING RESEARCH
It’s been a turbulent couple of days after the announcement of the U.S. Presidential results in the early hours of Wednesday.
After week ...
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- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Planning Commission, India
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