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Wednesday, 12 October 16
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
 Another Monday has gone by, bringing with it further turbulence for oil. A series of meetings between high-production nations Russia & Saudi Arabia yielded statements signaling that a potential agreement to limit crude output is a possibility. According to Vladimir Putin “Russia is ready to join the joint measures to cap production and is calling for other oil exporters to join”. At the same time, Algeria has also called for similar measures to be taken by non-OPEC members. Following these events, and amidst speculation regarding the firming possibility of a Clinton presidency next month, oil surged to its highest levels this year, with the Brent futures reaching USD 53.73 and finally closing at USD 53.14 on Monday.
While the expectation of a possible agreement played its part in driving the futures to higher levels, the upward trend was short-lived with Brent falling back to USD 52.84 this morning. Growing doubts regarding whether the proposed measures would be enough to compensate for two years of oversupply, especially considering the higher production figures coming out of Libya, Nigeria and Iraq, have reigned in the index.
The strained relationship between OPEC members is also a concern, especially when it comes to Iran which, with its recent re-entry into the market, is looking to regain lost market share by increasing production. This comes into direct opposition with Saudi Arabia who has been adamant regarding Iran’s commitment to any such future agreement.
Furthermore, Iraq has also been looking at growing production next year and has been one of the main opponents of an agreement. Goldman Sachs issued a statement to clients regarding the increased possibility of a production cut deal but also stressing that markets are unlikely to rebalance within the year.
Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih expressed his confidence that a deal would be reached by November. However, he further stressed the need to tread carefully and responsibly in order to not shock the market too much. It is very much worth noting that a potential large increase in oil prices might allow high-cost exporters (such as US shale exporters for whom current prices are unprofitable) to resume production starting the cycle all over again. On the other hand, in case a deal is unattainable, it is quite likely that we will see levels towards the low-40s once again.
These events have also been felt in the tanker market. Nigerian and Brazilian outputs specifically have helped to stop the recent decline in tanker rates. With Nigerian volumes back up to around 1.8mb/d, we have seen firmer Suezmax and VL rates (at 22k/d and 40k/d respectively). Brazil's output reached 2.6mb/d in August and is on a steady climb, which is expected to last until 2025. As internal demand has declined, exports have risen with approximately 40% of Brazil crude heading to China. Despite the adverse effect oversupply has had on prices and even though demand matching supply is rather questionable at the current state of the market, it has still offered more business for tankers and, as such, higher prices for oil won’t increase demand for it.
All in all, we will have to wait until the November official OPEC meetings for further firm developments. Given the general feeling of uncertainty and multitude of market-affecting variables in play at the moment, however, any sort of long-lasting stability seems rather farfetched.
By Linos Kogevinas
Marketing—Harbour Towage & Port Agency
Cotzias Intermodal Shipping Inc.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 22 November 16
THE COMMODITIES MARKETS HAD SHOWED GREATER PROMISE SINCE THE SUMMER PERIOD - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
We have all borne witness to the sluggish pace of trade growth witnessed during the course of the past 4 years as well as the even slower pace note ...
Monday, 21 November 16
CHINA IS ESTIMATED TO SEE HIGHEST IMPORTED COAL DEMAND LEVEL IN 2017, POLL SAYS
“Which country is estimated to see highest imported coal demand level in 2017?”
The on-line opinion poll conducted by COALsp ...
Monday, 21 November 16
KOMIPO IS LOOKING FOR 140K MT OF SUB-BITUMINOUS COAL FOR FEB-MAR 2017 LOADING
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued a new tender for 140,000 Metric Tons of Sub-Bituminous coal for i ...
Monday, 21 November 16
BALTIC DRY INDEX SURGES TO 1257 POINTS W/E 18 NOV; BPI ROSE 37.3% W/W
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities rally continues this past week and ending on a positive n ...
Friday, 18 November 16
CAPESIZE: THE COMMODITIES PRICES ARE INCREASING, RESULTING IN MORE DEMAND AND CONSEQUENTLY RATES ARE MAKING A BIG JUMP - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
Apart from booming S. Africa where owners have obtained USD 14-15k to MEG/India and around mid USD 12k to China, the Pacific market has ...
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- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Australian Coal Association
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- The University of Queensland
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
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