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Wednesday, 12 October 16
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
 Another Monday has gone by, bringing with it further turbulence for oil. A series of meetings between high-production nations Russia & Saudi Arabia yielded statements signaling that a potential agreement to limit crude output is a possibility. According to Vladimir Putin “Russia is ready to join the joint measures to cap production and is calling for other oil exporters to join”. At the same time, Algeria has also called for similar measures to be taken by non-OPEC members. Following these events, and amidst speculation regarding the firming possibility of a Clinton presidency next month, oil surged to its highest levels this year, with the Brent futures reaching USD 53.73 and finally closing at USD 53.14 on Monday.
While the expectation of a possible agreement played its part in driving the futures to higher levels, the upward trend was short-lived with Brent falling back to USD 52.84 this morning. Growing doubts regarding whether the proposed measures would be enough to compensate for two years of oversupply, especially considering the higher production figures coming out of Libya, Nigeria and Iraq, have reigned in the index.
The strained relationship between OPEC members is also a concern, especially when it comes to Iran which, with its recent re-entry into the market, is looking to regain lost market share by increasing production. This comes into direct opposition with Saudi Arabia who has been adamant regarding Iran’s commitment to any such future agreement.
Furthermore, Iraq has also been looking at growing production next year and has been one of the main opponents of an agreement. Goldman Sachs issued a statement to clients regarding the increased possibility of a production cut deal but also stressing that markets are unlikely to rebalance within the year.
Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih expressed his confidence that a deal would be reached by November. However, he further stressed the need to tread carefully and responsibly in order to not shock the market too much. It is very much worth noting that a potential large increase in oil prices might allow high-cost exporters (such as US shale exporters for whom current prices are unprofitable) to resume production starting the cycle all over again. On the other hand, in case a deal is unattainable, it is quite likely that we will see levels towards the low-40s once again.
These events have also been felt in the tanker market. Nigerian and Brazilian outputs specifically have helped to stop the recent decline in tanker rates. With Nigerian volumes back up to around 1.8mb/d, we have seen firmer Suezmax and VL rates (at 22k/d and 40k/d respectively). Brazil's output reached 2.6mb/d in August and is on a steady climb, which is expected to last until 2025. As internal demand has declined, exports have risen with approximately 40% of Brazil crude heading to China. Despite the adverse effect oversupply has had on prices and even though demand matching supply is rather questionable at the current state of the market, it has still offered more business for tankers and, as such, higher prices for oil won’t increase demand for it.
All in all, we will have to wait until the November official OPEC meetings for further firm developments. Given the general feeling of uncertainty and multitude of market-affecting variables in play at the moment, however, any sort of long-lasting stability seems rather farfetched.
By Linos Kogevinas
Marketing—Harbour Towage & Port Agency
Cotzias Intermodal Shipping Inc.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 04 December 16
U.S. WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT DECLINED 11.9% W/E 26 NOV; UP 1.4% Y/Y, EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 15.2 million short ton ...
Thursday, 01 December 16
OIL PRICES MAY SEE LITTLE GROWTH BEFORE 2018, FITCH RATINGS SAYS
High inventories and the potential for US shale production to respond quickly to any market tightening mean oil prices may flat line in 2017 before ...
Thursday, 01 December 16
CHINA 2017 OIL, GAS OUTPUT DROP MAY WORSEN ON CAPEX CUT: FITCH
China's oil and gas production may shrink even more in 2017 than in 2016 after the country's leading oil companies cut exploration and prod ...
Thursday, 01 December 16
ANOTHER WONDERFUL WEEK FOR PANAMAX - FEARNLEY
Supramax
A slower start to the week in the Pacific compared to last Trips from N. China to S. China is paying in the range of low USD 5k, while I ...
Tuesday, 29 November 16
AUSTRALIA'S PORT OF NEWCASTLE SHIPPED 13.08 MT OF COAL IN OCTOBER; DOWN 10.39% M/M
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export port has shipped $AU1,124.7 Mi ...
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- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
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