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Wednesday, 12 October 16
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
 Another Monday has gone by, bringing with it further turbulence for oil. A series of meetings between high-production nations Russia & Saudi Arabia yielded statements signaling that a potential agreement to limit crude output is a possibility. According to Vladimir Putin “Russia is ready to join the joint measures to cap production and is calling for other oil exporters to join”. At the same time, Algeria has also called for similar measures to be taken by non-OPEC members. Following these events, and amidst speculation regarding the firming possibility of a Clinton presidency next month, oil surged to its highest levels this year, with the Brent futures reaching USD 53.73 and finally closing at USD 53.14 on Monday.
While the expectation of a possible agreement played its part in driving the futures to higher levels, the upward trend was short-lived with Brent falling back to USD 52.84 this morning. Growing doubts regarding whether the proposed measures would be enough to compensate for two years of oversupply, especially considering the higher production figures coming out of Libya, Nigeria and Iraq, have reigned in the index.
The strained relationship between OPEC members is also a concern, especially when it comes to Iran which, with its recent re-entry into the market, is looking to regain lost market share by increasing production. This comes into direct opposition with Saudi Arabia who has been adamant regarding Iran’s commitment to any such future agreement.
Furthermore, Iraq has also been looking at growing production next year and has been one of the main opponents of an agreement. Goldman Sachs issued a statement to clients regarding the increased possibility of a production cut deal but also stressing that markets are unlikely to rebalance within the year.
Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih expressed his confidence that a deal would be reached by November. However, he further stressed the need to tread carefully and responsibly in order to not shock the market too much. It is very much worth noting that a potential large increase in oil prices might allow high-cost exporters (such as US shale exporters for whom current prices are unprofitable) to resume production starting the cycle all over again. On the other hand, in case a deal is unattainable, it is quite likely that we will see levels towards the low-40s once again.
These events have also been felt in the tanker market. Nigerian and Brazilian outputs specifically have helped to stop the recent decline in tanker rates. With Nigerian volumes back up to around 1.8mb/d, we have seen firmer Suezmax and VL rates (at 22k/d and 40k/d respectively). Brazil's output reached 2.6mb/d in August and is on a steady climb, which is expected to last until 2025. As internal demand has declined, exports have risen with approximately 40% of Brazil crude heading to China. Despite the adverse effect oversupply has had on prices and even though demand matching supply is rather questionable at the current state of the market, it has still offered more business for tankers and, as such, higher prices for oil won’t increase demand for it.
All in all, we will have to wait until the November official OPEC meetings for further firm developments. Given the general feeling of uncertainty and multitude of market-affecting variables in play at the moment, however, any sort of long-lasting stability seems rather farfetched.
By Linos Kogevinas
Marketing—Harbour Towage & Port Agency
Cotzias Intermodal Shipping Inc.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 07 December 16
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION IS FORECAST TO INCREASE BY 2% IN 2017 - EIA
U.S. Coal production in November 2016 was 70.7 million short tons (MMst), the third time this year monthly production exceeded 70 MMst, says EIA.
...
Wednesday, 07 December 16
IT'S BEEN YET ANOTHER TURBULENT COUPLE OF DAYS..... - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
It’s been yet another turbulent couple of days, with a significant number of news headlines shaking up markets.
On Friday we had & ...
Monday, 05 December 16
INDIAN HYDROPOWER PRODUCTION AT LOWEST LEVEL SINCE 2012, SAYS COMMODORE RESEARCH
According to Commodore Research, the first eleven months of this year have seen India’s overall electricity production total approximately 1. ...
Monday, 05 December 16
THE DECEMBER 2016 HBA HITS TO ITS HIGHEST LEVEL SINCE MAY 2012
COALspot.com: The Indonesia coal benchmark price hits to its highest level since May 2012. The government declared benchmark prices for Indo ...
Monday, 05 December 16
BALTIC PANAMAX INDEX UP 5.98%; BALTIC CAPE INDEX FELL 2.52% W/W
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities rally slightly continues this past week and ending on a s ...
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- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- The University of Queensland
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
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