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Wednesday, 12 October 16
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
 Another Monday has gone by, bringing with it further turbulence for oil. A series of meetings between high-production nations Russia & Saudi Arabia yielded statements signaling that a potential agreement to limit crude output is a possibility. According to Vladimir Putin “Russia is ready to join the joint measures to cap production and is calling for other oil exporters to join”. At the same time, Algeria has also called for similar measures to be taken by non-OPEC members. Following these events, and amidst speculation regarding the firming possibility of a Clinton presidency next month, oil surged to its highest levels this year, with the Brent futures reaching USD 53.73 and finally closing at USD 53.14 on Monday.
While the expectation of a possible agreement played its part in driving the futures to higher levels, the upward trend was short-lived with Brent falling back to USD 52.84 this morning. Growing doubts regarding whether the proposed measures would be enough to compensate for two years of oversupply, especially considering the higher production figures coming out of Libya, Nigeria and Iraq, have reigned in the index.
The strained relationship between OPEC members is also a concern, especially when it comes to Iran which, with its recent re-entry into the market, is looking to regain lost market share by increasing production. This comes into direct opposition with Saudi Arabia who has been adamant regarding Iran’s commitment to any such future agreement.
Furthermore, Iraq has also been looking at growing production next year and has been one of the main opponents of an agreement. Goldman Sachs issued a statement to clients regarding the increased possibility of a production cut deal but also stressing that markets are unlikely to rebalance within the year.
Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih expressed his confidence that a deal would be reached by November. However, he further stressed the need to tread carefully and responsibly in order to not shock the market too much. It is very much worth noting that a potential large increase in oil prices might allow high-cost exporters (such as US shale exporters for whom current prices are unprofitable) to resume production starting the cycle all over again. On the other hand, in case a deal is unattainable, it is quite likely that we will see levels towards the low-40s once again.
These events have also been felt in the tanker market. Nigerian and Brazilian outputs specifically have helped to stop the recent decline in tanker rates. With Nigerian volumes back up to around 1.8mb/d, we have seen firmer Suezmax and VL rates (at 22k/d and 40k/d respectively). Brazil's output reached 2.6mb/d in August and is on a steady climb, which is expected to last until 2025. As internal demand has declined, exports have risen with approximately 40% of Brazil crude heading to China. Despite the adverse effect oversupply has had on prices and even though demand matching supply is rather questionable at the current state of the market, it has still offered more business for tankers and, as such, higher prices for oil won’t increase demand for it.
All in all, we will have to wait until the November official OPEC meetings for further firm developments. Given the general feeling of uncertainty and multitude of market-affecting variables in play at the moment, however, any sort of long-lasting stability seems rather farfetched.
By Linos Kogevinas
Marketing—Harbour Towage & Port Agency
Cotzias Intermodal Shipping Inc.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 29 November 16
US WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT TOTALS 17.2 MMST, UP 2.8% : EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 17.2 million short ton ...
Monday, 28 November 16
BALTIC DRY INDEX FALLS TO 1181 POINT, DOWN 76 POINTS W/W
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities down slightly and ending in a negative note this past wee ...
Thursday, 24 November 16
SUPRAMAX: SOUTH AFRICA STILL STRONG WITH OWNERS ACHIEVING AROUND USD 14-15K FOR TRIPS EAST - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
A positive kick-off in both the Atlantic and the Pacific. Very healthy rates within USG, some supras receiving well over 20k for trips t ...
Wednesday, 23 November 16
MARKET INSIGHT - CHRISTOPHER THOMAS WHITTY
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is due to finalize a reduction in total production at its next scheduled meeting in Vi ...
Tuesday, 22 November 16
ITALY'S STEAM COAL IMPORTS EXPECTED TO DECLINE 7% Y/Y TO 15 MILLION TONS IN 2017 - ITALIAN COAL ASSOCIATION
Italy’s steam coal imports expected to decline to 15 million tons in 2017, or 7% less imports compared to 2016. The coking coal imports are e ...
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- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Australian Coal Association
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
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