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Wednesday, 12 October 16
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
 Another Monday has gone by, bringing with it further turbulence for oil. A series of meetings between high-production nations Russia & Saudi Arabia yielded statements signaling that a potential agreement to limit crude output is a possibility. According to Vladimir Putin “Russia is ready to join the joint measures to cap production and is calling for other oil exporters to join”. At the same time, Algeria has also called for similar measures to be taken by non-OPEC members. Following these events, and amidst speculation regarding the firming possibility of a Clinton presidency next month, oil surged to its highest levels this year, with the Brent futures reaching USD 53.73 and finally closing at USD 53.14 on Monday.
While the expectation of a possible agreement played its part in driving the futures to higher levels, the upward trend was short-lived with Brent falling back to USD 52.84 this morning. Growing doubts regarding whether the proposed measures would be enough to compensate for two years of oversupply, especially considering the higher production figures coming out of Libya, Nigeria and Iraq, have reigned in the index.
The strained relationship between OPEC members is also a concern, especially when it comes to Iran which, with its recent re-entry into the market, is looking to regain lost market share by increasing production. This comes into direct opposition with Saudi Arabia who has been adamant regarding Iran’s commitment to any such future agreement.
Furthermore, Iraq has also been looking at growing production next year and has been one of the main opponents of an agreement. Goldman Sachs issued a statement to clients regarding the increased possibility of a production cut deal but also stressing that markets are unlikely to rebalance within the year.
Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih expressed his confidence that a deal would be reached by November. However, he further stressed the need to tread carefully and responsibly in order to not shock the market too much. It is very much worth noting that a potential large increase in oil prices might allow high-cost exporters (such as US shale exporters for whom current prices are unprofitable) to resume production starting the cycle all over again. On the other hand, in case a deal is unattainable, it is quite likely that we will see levels towards the low-40s once again.
These events have also been felt in the tanker market. Nigerian and Brazilian outputs specifically have helped to stop the recent decline in tanker rates. With Nigerian volumes back up to around 1.8mb/d, we have seen firmer Suezmax and VL rates (at 22k/d and 40k/d respectively). Brazil's output reached 2.6mb/d in August and is on a steady climb, which is expected to last until 2025. As internal demand has declined, exports have risen with approximately 40% of Brazil crude heading to China. Despite the adverse effect oversupply has had on prices and even though demand matching supply is rather questionable at the current state of the market, it has still offered more business for tankers and, as such, higher prices for oil won’t increase demand for it.
All in all, we will have to wait until the November official OPEC meetings for further firm developments. Given the general feeling of uncertainty and multitude of market-affecting variables in play at the moment, however, any sort of long-lasting stability seems rather farfetched.
By Linos Kogevinas
Marketing—Harbour Towage & Port Agency
Cotzias Intermodal Shipping Inc.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 14 December 16
INTERNATIONAL TRIBUNAL DISMISSED CHURCHILL MINING'S DAMAGES CLAIM AGAINST REPUBLIC OF INDONESIA
The Directors of Churchill Mining plc advise that, the ICSID Tribunal (“Tribunal”) granted Indonesia’s application to dismiss the ...
Wednesday, 14 December 16
20/20 VISION! - JOHN N. COTZIAS
2020; A year that could be changing shipping. In early November, the International Maritime Organization (IMO) announced that it would set a 0.5% s ...
Tuesday, 13 December 16
THE FREIGHT MARKET MAY WELL BE SHOWING SIGNS OF HEADING FOR ITS DOWNWARD CORRECTIVE PHASE - ALLIED
2016 has been a tough market for dry bulkers and through these difficult earnings, we have seen some of the lowest prices being noted historically ...
Tuesday, 13 December 16
COAL DEMAND GROWTH TO STALL AS APPETITE WANES, ACCORDING TO IEA
Growth in global coal demand will stall over the next five years as the appetite for the fuel wanes and other energy sources gain ground, according ...
Monday, 12 December 16
U.S. WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION TOTALS 16.3 MMST, UP 7.4% - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 16.3 million short ton ...
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- Economic Council, Georgia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- The University of Queensland
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Planning Commission, India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
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