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Wednesday, 12 October 16
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
 Another Monday has gone by, bringing with it further turbulence for oil. A series of meetings between high-production nations Russia & Saudi Arabia yielded statements signaling that a potential agreement to limit crude output is a possibility. According to Vladimir Putin “Russia is ready to join the joint measures to cap production and is calling for other oil exporters to join”. At the same time, Algeria has also called for similar measures to be taken by non-OPEC members. Following these events, and amidst speculation regarding the firming possibility of a Clinton presidency next month, oil surged to its highest levels this year, with the Brent futures reaching USD 53.73 and finally closing at USD 53.14 on Monday.
While the expectation of a possible agreement played its part in driving the futures to higher levels, the upward trend was short-lived with Brent falling back to USD 52.84 this morning. Growing doubts regarding whether the proposed measures would be enough to compensate for two years of oversupply, especially considering the higher production figures coming out of Libya, Nigeria and Iraq, have reigned in the index.
The strained relationship between OPEC members is also a concern, especially when it comes to Iran which, with its recent re-entry into the market, is looking to regain lost market share by increasing production. This comes into direct opposition with Saudi Arabia who has been adamant regarding Iran’s commitment to any such future agreement.
Furthermore, Iraq has also been looking at growing production next year and has been one of the main opponents of an agreement. Goldman Sachs issued a statement to clients regarding the increased possibility of a production cut deal but also stressing that markets are unlikely to rebalance within the year.
Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih expressed his confidence that a deal would be reached by November. However, he further stressed the need to tread carefully and responsibly in order to not shock the market too much. It is very much worth noting that a potential large increase in oil prices might allow high-cost exporters (such as US shale exporters for whom current prices are unprofitable) to resume production starting the cycle all over again. On the other hand, in case a deal is unattainable, it is quite likely that we will see levels towards the low-40s once again.
These events have also been felt in the tanker market. Nigerian and Brazilian outputs specifically have helped to stop the recent decline in tanker rates. With Nigerian volumes back up to around 1.8mb/d, we have seen firmer Suezmax and VL rates (at 22k/d and 40k/d respectively). Brazil's output reached 2.6mb/d in August and is on a steady climb, which is expected to last until 2025. As internal demand has declined, exports have risen with approximately 40% of Brazil crude heading to China. Despite the adverse effect oversupply has had on prices and even though demand matching supply is rather questionable at the current state of the market, it has still offered more business for tankers and, as such, higher prices for oil won’t increase demand for it.
All in all, we will have to wait until the November official OPEC meetings for further firm developments. Given the general feeling of uncertainty and multitude of market-affecting variables in play at the moment, however, any sort of long-lasting stability seems rather farfetched.
By Linos Kogevinas
Marketing—Harbour Towage & Port Agency
Cotzias Intermodal Shipping Inc.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 20 December 16
TRADE HAS FELT ITS BUMPS AND SHAKES THIS YEAR - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
Trade has felt its bumps and shakes this year, as growing populist protectionist and nationalist movements in the Western world start to take hold. ...
Tuesday, 20 December 16
TURNAROUND IN CHINESE ECONOMY HAS INTENSIFIED RECENTLY, SAYS COMMODORE RESEARCH
According to the most recent Weekly China Report published by Commodore Research, it has remained encouraging that the turnaround in China’s ...
Monday, 19 December 16
U.S. WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION DOWN 3.1% PERCENT WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 15.8 million short ton ...
Monday, 19 December 16
THE FREIGHT MARKET WAS CONTINUING TO SOFTEN
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities continually decline this past week and ending on a negati ...
Thursday, 15 December 16
SUPRAMAXES ARE ACHIEVING AROUND HIGH USD 7K FOR INDO/CHINA COAL ROUNDS - FEARNLEY
Supramax
Pacific has been relatively quiet this week, with some softening signs.
Supramaxes are achieving around high USD 7k for Indo/China ...
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- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Australian Coal Association
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
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