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Wednesday, 12 October 16
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
 Another Monday has gone by, bringing with it further turbulence for oil. A series of meetings between high-production nations Russia & Saudi Arabia yielded statements signaling that a potential agreement to limit crude output is a possibility. According to Vladimir Putin “Russia is ready to join the joint measures to cap production and is calling for other oil exporters to join”. At the same time, Algeria has also called for similar measures to be taken by non-OPEC members. Following these events, and amidst speculation regarding the firming possibility of a Clinton presidency next month, oil surged to its highest levels this year, with the Brent futures reaching USD 53.73 and finally closing at USD 53.14 on Monday.
While the expectation of a possible agreement played its part in driving the futures to higher levels, the upward trend was short-lived with Brent falling back to USD 52.84 this morning. Growing doubts regarding whether the proposed measures would be enough to compensate for two years of oversupply, especially considering the higher production figures coming out of Libya, Nigeria and Iraq, have reigned in the index.
The strained relationship between OPEC members is also a concern, especially when it comes to Iran which, with its recent re-entry into the market, is looking to regain lost market share by increasing production. This comes into direct opposition with Saudi Arabia who has been adamant regarding Iran’s commitment to any such future agreement.
Furthermore, Iraq has also been looking at growing production next year and has been one of the main opponents of an agreement. Goldman Sachs issued a statement to clients regarding the increased possibility of a production cut deal but also stressing that markets are unlikely to rebalance within the year.
Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih expressed his confidence that a deal would be reached by November. However, he further stressed the need to tread carefully and responsibly in order to not shock the market too much. It is very much worth noting that a potential large increase in oil prices might allow high-cost exporters (such as US shale exporters for whom current prices are unprofitable) to resume production starting the cycle all over again. On the other hand, in case a deal is unattainable, it is quite likely that we will see levels towards the low-40s once again.
These events have also been felt in the tanker market. Nigerian and Brazilian outputs specifically have helped to stop the recent decline in tanker rates. With Nigerian volumes back up to around 1.8mb/d, we have seen firmer Suezmax and VL rates (at 22k/d and 40k/d respectively). Brazil's output reached 2.6mb/d in August and is on a steady climb, which is expected to last until 2025. As internal demand has declined, exports have risen with approximately 40% of Brazil crude heading to China. Despite the adverse effect oversupply has had on prices and even though demand matching supply is rather questionable at the current state of the market, it has still offered more business for tankers and, as such, higher prices for oil won’t increase demand for it.
All in all, we will have to wait until the November official OPEC meetings for further firm developments. Given the general feeling of uncertainty and multitude of market-affecting variables in play at the moment, however, any sort of long-lasting stability seems rather farfetched.
By Linos Kogevinas
Marketing—Harbour Towage & Port Agency
Cotzias Intermodal Shipping Inc.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 02 January 17
PORT OF NEWCASTLE SHIPPED 13.62 MMT OF COAL IN NOVEMBER; UP 4.18% M/M
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export port has shipped $AU 1,201 Mil ...
Friday, 30 December 16
US WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION TOTALS 15.2 MMST, DOWN 3.1% - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 15.2 million sho ...
Thursday, 29 December 16
CHINA AIMS TO CAP COAL-FIRED POWER CAPACITY AT 1,100 GIGAWATTS BY THE END OF 2020 - REUTERS
China aims to cap total primary energy consumption at around 4.4 billion tonnes of coal equivalent in 2017, the director of the National Energy Adm ...
Wednesday, 28 December 16
FINANCIAL MARKETS AND COMMODITY MARKETS HAVE ALREADY SHOWED CONSIDERABLE IMPROVEMENT AND RENEWED OPTIMISM - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
As 2016 nears to a close many will be breathing a heavy sigh of relief, having made it through one of the toughest years in this century and lookin ...
Wednesday, 28 December 16
BUMA SIGNED APPROXIMATELY US$ 493 MILLION WORTH OF MINING SERVICES CONTRACTS WITH PT ADARO INDONESIA AND PT ANGSANA JAYA ENERGY
COALspot.com: PT Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk. Has announced that its primary operating subsidiary, PT Bukit Makmur Mandiri Utama ("BUMA") has ...
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- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- The University of Queensland
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
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