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Wednesday, 12 October 16
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
 Another Monday has gone by, bringing with it further turbulence for oil. A series of meetings between high-production nations Russia & Saudi Arabia yielded statements signaling that a potential agreement to limit crude output is a possibility. According to Vladimir Putin “Russia is ready to join the joint measures to cap production and is calling for other oil exporters to join”. At the same time, Algeria has also called for similar measures to be taken by non-OPEC members. Following these events, and amidst speculation regarding the firming possibility of a Clinton presidency next month, oil surged to its highest levels this year, with the Brent futures reaching USD 53.73 and finally closing at USD 53.14 on Monday.
While the expectation of a possible agreement played its part in driving the futures to higher levels, the upward trend was short-lived with Brent falling back to USD 52.84 this morning. Growing doubts regarding whether the proposed measures would be enough to compensate for two years of oversupply, especially considering the higher production figures coming out of Libya, Nigeria and Iraq, have reigned in the index.
The strained relationship between OPEC members is also a concern, especially when it comes to Iran which, with its recent re-entry into the market, is looking to regain lost market share by increasing production. This comes into direct opposition with Saudi Arabia who has been adamant regarding Iran’s commitment to any such future agreement.
Furthermore, Iraq has also been looking at growing production next year and has been one of the main opponents of an agreement. Goldman Sachs issued a statement to clients regarding the increased possibility of a production cut deal but also stressing that markets are unlikely to rebalance within the year.
Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih expressed his confidence that a deal would be reached by November. However, he further stressed the need to tread carefully and responsibly in order to not shock the market too much. It is very much worth noting that a potential large increase in oil prices might allow high-cost exporters (such as US shale exporters for whom current prices are unprofitable) to resume production starting the cycle all over again. On the other hand, in case a deal is unattainable, it is quite likely that we will see levels towards the low-40s once again.
These events have also been felt in the tanker market. Nigerian and Brazilian outputs specifically have helped to stop the recent decline in tanker rates. With Nigerian volumes back up to around 1.8mb/d, we have seen firmer Suezmax and VL rates (at 22k/d and 40k/d respectively). Brazil's output reached 2.6mb/d in August and is on a steady climb, which is expected to last until 2025. As internal demand has declined, exports have risen with approximately 40% of Brazil crude heading to China. Despite the adverse effect oversupply has had on prices and even though demand matching supply is rather questionable at the current state of the market, it has still offered more business for tankers and, as such, higher prices for oil won’t increase demand for it.
All in all, we will have to wait until the November official OPEC meetings for further firm developments. Given the general feeling of uncertainty and multitude of market-affecting variables in play at the moment, however, any sort of long-lasting stability seems rather farfetched.
By Linos Kogevinas
Marketing—Harbour Towage & Port Agency
Cotzias Intermodal Shipping Inc.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 05 January 17
UNCHANGED COAL-FIRED TARIFFS PRESSURE CHINA'S GENERATORS - FITCH
COALspot.com: China's decision to keep on-grid electricity prices from coal-fired power unchanged amid higher coal prices will further squeeze ...
Thursday, 05 January 17
CAPE MARKET HAVE KEPT SURPRISINGLY FIRM AND ACTIVE DURING THE CHRISTMAS AND NEW YEAR HOLIDAYS - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
The first week after a slow Christmas break has started off with little activity and softening rates. Not surprisingly, the market is fi ...
Thursday, 05 January 17
COMPARISON OF HONG KONG AND LONDON ARBITRATION - SKULD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Whilst London arbitration is the most popular platform for resolution of charterparty disputes, where the parties involved a ...
Wednesday, 04 January 17
INDONESIA'S COAL PRODUCTION IS ESTIMATED TO REACH 434 MILLION TONS IN 2016 EXCEEDED THE GOVERNMENT'S INITIAL TARGET
Indonesia's coal production is estimated to reach 434 million tons in 2016 exceeded the government's initial target. The Ministry of Energy ...
Tuesday, 03 January 17
BENGKULU TO IMPOSE TOUGHER REGULATION FOR UNPROCESSED COAL AND MINERALS EXPORTS IN 2017 - MEDIA
Bengkulu provincial government is planning to impose tougher regulation for export of coal and mineral in 2017. According to liputan6 online portal ...
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- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Australian Coal Association
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PTC India Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
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