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Wednesday, 12 October 16
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
 Another Monday has gone by, bringing with it further turbulence for oil. A series of meetings between high-production nations Russia & Saudi Arabia yielded statements signaling that a potential agreement to limit crude output is a possibility. According to Vladimir Putin “Russia is ready to join the joint measures to cap production and is calling for other oil exporters to join”. At the same time, Algeria has also called for similar measures to be taken by non-OPEC members. Following these events, and amidst speculation regarding the firming possibility of a Clinton presidency next month, oil surged to its highest levels this year, with the Brent futures reaching USD 53.73 and finally closing at USD 53.14 on Monday.
While the expectation of a possible agreement played its part in driving the futures to higher levels, the upward trend was short-lived with Brent falling back to USD 52.84 this morning. Growing doubts regarding whether the proposed measures would be enough to compensate for two years of oversupply, especially considering the higher production figures coming out of Libya, Nigeria and Iraq, have reigned in the index.
The strained relationship between OPEC members is also a concern, especially when it comes to Iran which, with its recent re-entry into the market, is looking to regain lost market share by increasing production. This comes into direct opposition with Saudi Arabia who has been adamant regarding Iran’s commitment to any such future agreement.
Furthermore, Iraq has also been looking at growing production next year and has been one of the main opponents of an agreement. Goldman Sachs issued a statement to clients regarding the increased possibility of a production cut deal but also stressing that markets are unlikely to rebalance within the year.
Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih expressed his confidence that a deal would be reached by November. However, he further stressed the need to tread carefully and responsibly in order to not shock the market too much. It is very much worth noting that a potential large increase in oil prices might allow high-cost exporters (such as US shale exporters for whom current prices are unprofitable) to resume production starting the cycle all over again. On the other hand, in case a deal is unattainable, it is quite likely that we will see levels towards the low-40s once again.
These events have also been felt in the tanker market. Nigerian and Brazilian outputs specifically have helped to stop the recent decline in tanker rates. With Nigerian volumes back up to around 1.8mb/d, we have seen firmer Suezmax and VL rates (at 22k/d and 40k/d respectively). Brazil's output reached 2.6mb/d in August and is on a steady climb, which is expected to last until 2025. As internal demand has declined, exports have risen with approximately 40% of Brazil crude heading to China. Despite the adverse effect oversupply has had on prices and even though demand matching supply is rather questionable at the current state of the market, it has still offered more business for tankers and, as such, higher prices for oil won’t increase demand for it.
All in all, we will have to wait until the November official OPEC meetings for further firm developments. Given the general feeling of uncertainty and multitude of market-affecting variables in play at the moment, however, any sort of long-lasting stability seems rather farfetched.
By Linos Kogevinas
Marketing—Harbour Towage & Port Agency
Cotzias Intermodal Shipping Inc.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 16 January 17
WHY THE SOLUTION TO INDIA'S ENERGY CHALLENGE LIES IN COAL POWER PLANTS - BENJAMIN SPORTON
India’s huge development and energy challenges mean there are economic and development arguments for investing in new coal power plants for t ...
Friday, 13 January 17
U.S. COAL PRICES TO INCREASE IN 2017 AND IN 2018 - EIA
Coal Supply
EIA estimates that U.S. coal production declined by 158 million short tons (MMst) (18%) in 2016, to 739 MMst, which would be the lowe ...
Friday, 13 January 17
U.S. COAL IMPORTS IN THIRD QUARTER 2016 TOTALED 2.7 MMST, SAYS EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 13.8 million short ton ...
Thursday, 12 January 17
ASIA: COAL'S FUTURE - BENJAMIN SPORTON
As economies develop and the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are realised, demand for energy will increase as more peopl ...
Wednesday, 11 January 17
MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE DERMATIS
A new year has dawned upon us and it sure promises to be an exciting one which makes it practically impossible to resist the challenge of making a ...
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- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Planning Commission, India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
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