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Wednesday, 12 October 16
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
 Another Monday has gone by, bringing with it further turbulence for oil. A series of meetings between high-production nations Russia & Saudi Arabia yielded statements signaling that a potential agreement to limit crude output is a possibility. According to Vladimir Putin “Russia is ready to join the joint measures to cap production and is calling for other oil exporters to join”. At the same time, Algeria has also called for similar measures to be taken by non-OPEC members. Following these events, and amidst speculation regarding the firming possibility of a Clinton presidency next month, oil surged to its highest levels this year, with the Brent futures reaching USD 53.73 and finally closing at USD 53.14 on Monday.
While the expectation of a possible agreement played its part in driving the futures to higher levels, the upward trend was short-lived with Brent falling back to USD 52.84 this morning. Growing doubts regarding whether the proposed measures would be enough to compensate for two years of oversupply, especially considering the higher production figures coming out of Libya, Nigeria and Iraq, have reigned in the index.
The strained relationship between OPEC members is also a concern, especially when it comes to Iran which, with its recent re-entry into the market, is looking to regain lost market share by increasing production. This comes into direct opposition with Saudi Arabia who has been adamant regarding Iran’s commitment to any such future agreement.
Furthermore, Iraq has also been looking at growing production next year and has been one of the main opponents of an agreement. Goldman Sachs issued a statement to clients regarding the increased possibility of a production cut deal but also stressing that markets are unlikely to rebalance within the year.
Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih expressed his confidence that a deal would be reached by November. However, he further stressed the need to tread carefully and responsibly in order to not shock the market too much. It is very much worth noting that a potential large increase in oil prices might allow high-cost exporters (such as US shale exporters for whom current prices are unprofitable) to resume production starting the cycle all over again. On the other hand, in case a deal is unattainable, it is quite likely that we will see levels towards the low-40s once again.
These events have also been felt in the tanker market. Nigerian and Brazilian outputs specifically have helped to stop the recent decline in tanker rates. With Nigerian volumes back up to around 1.8mb/d, we have seen firmer Suezmax and VL rates (at 22k/d and 40k/d respectively). Brazil's output reached 2.6mb/d in August and is on a steady climb, which is expected to last until 2025. As internal demand has declined, exports have risen with approximately 40% of Brazil crude heading to China. Despite the adverse effect oversupply has had on prices and even though demand matching supply is rather questionable at the current state of the market, it has still offered more business for tankers and, as such, higher prices for oil won’t increase demand for it.
All in all, we will have to wait until the November official OPEC meetings for further firm developments. Given the general feeling of uncertainty and multitude of market-affecting variables in play at the moment, however, any sort of long-lasting stability seems rather farfetched.
By Linos Kogevinas
Marketing—Harbour Towage & Port Agency
Cotzias Intermodal Shipping Inc.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 23 January 17
THE FREIGHT MARKET DID NOT CHANGE MUCH AND WAS ALMOST AT SAME LEVELS AS LAST WEEK
COALspot.com: The Freight market did not change much and was almost at same levels as last week.
The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships ...
Friday, 20 January 17
U.S. WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT ESTIMATED 15.7 MMST; UP 14.1% W/W
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 15.7 million short ton ...
Thursday, 19 January 17
KOREAN POWER UTILITY BORYEONG POWER TO IMPORT 660K TONS OF BITUMINOUS COAL FOR MARCH 2017
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued a new tender for 590,000 Metric Tons of Bituminous coal and 7000 ...
Thursday, 19 January 17
PANAMAX RATES ARE UNDER PRESSURE IN BOTH HEMISPHERES - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
The market remained flat and the week continued at the same pace as last.
According to Fearnleys weekly dry bulk report, still more ...
Wednesday, 18 January 17
TANKER: THE CLEAN PRODUCT MARKET IS STILL NOT GIVING US ANY CLEAR SIGNS OF RECOVERY - GEORGE VASTARDIS
While we are approaching the Chinese New Year, the Clean Product market is still not giving us any clear signs of recovery, especially on The East ...
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- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- PTC India Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Planning Commission, India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Australian Coal Association
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- White Energy Company Limited
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
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