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Wednesday, 12 October 16
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
 Another Monday has gone by, bringing with it further turbulence for oil. A series of meetings between high-production nations Russia & Saudi Arabia yielded statements signaling that a potential agreement to limit crude output is a possibility. According to Vladimir Putin “Russia is ready to join the joint measures to cap production and is calling for other oil exporters to join”. At the same time, Algeria has also called for similar measures to be taken by non-OPEC members. Following these events, and amidst speculation regarding the firming possibility of a Clinton presidency next month, oil surged to its highest levels this year, with the Brent futures reaching USD 53.73 and finally closing at USD 53.14 on Monday.
While the expectation of a possible agreement played its part in driving the futures to higher levels, the upward trend was short-lived with Brent falling back to USD 52.84 this morning. Growing doubts regarding whether the proposed measures would be enough to compensate for two years of oversupply, especially considering the higher production figures coming out of Libya, Nigeria and Iraq, have reigned in the index.
The strained relationship between OPEC members is also a concern, especially when it comes to Iran which, with its recent re-entry into the market, is looking to regain lost market share by increasing production. This comes into direct opposition with Saudi Arabia who has been adamant regarding Iran’s commitment to any such future agreement.
Furthermore, Iraq has also been looking at growing production next year and has been one of the main opponents of an agreement. Goldman Sachs issued a statement to clients regarding the increased possibility of a production cut deal but also stressing that markets are unlikely to rebalance within the year.
Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih expressed his confidence that a deal would be reached by November. However, he further stressed the need to tread carefully and responsibly in order to not shock the market too much. It is very much worth noting that a potential large increase in oil prices might allow high-cost exporters (such as US shale exporters for whom current prices are unprofitable) to resume production starting the cycle all over again. On the other hand, in case a deal is unattainable, it is quite likely that we will see levels towards the low-40s once again.
These events have also been felt in the tanker market. Nigerian and Brazilian outputs specifically have helped to stop the recent decline in tanker rates. With Nigerian volumes back up to around 1.8mb/d, we have seen firmer Suezmax and VL rates (at 22k/d and 40k/d respectively). Brazil's output reached 2.6mb/d in August and is on a steady climb, which is expected to last until 2025. As internal demand has declined, exports have risen with approximately 40% of Brazil crude heading to China. Despite the adverse effect oversupply has had on prices and even though demand matching supply is rather questionable at the current state of the market, it has still offered more business for tankers and, as such, higher prices for oil won’t increase demand for it.
All in all, we will have to wait until the November official OPEC meetings for further firm developments. Given the general feeling of uncertainty and multitude of market-affecting variables in play at the moment, however, any sort of long-lasting stability seems rather farfetched.
By Linos Kogevinas
Marketing—Harbour Towage & Port Agency
Cotzias Intermodal Shipping Inc.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 03 February 17
KOMIPO INVITES BIDS FOR 1.13 MILLION TONS OF BITUMINOUS COAL FOR Q2' 17
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued a new tender for 1,130,000 Metric Tons of Bituminous coal f ...
Friday, 03 February 17
U.S. WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION DECLINED 3.9% W/W; ROSE 17.7% Y/Y
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 16.1 million short ton ...
Friday, 03 February 17
US - EXECUTIVE ORDER ON IMMIGRATION AFFECTS VESSEL CREWS - GARD
From 27 January 2017, crew members carrying Iraqi, Syrian, Sudanese, Iranian, Somalian, Libyan or Yemeni passports are temporarily barred from ente ...
Wednesday, 01 February 17
MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS TSILINGIRIS
The recent placement of LOIs for 208kdwt Newcastlemax Newbuildings at $38.5m at Private Chinese Yard identifies with the modern history low for dry ...
Tuesday, 31 January 17
A CASE OF NEW YEAR BLUES FOR THE FAR EAST? - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
Unlike the typical lull in the market that we note during the period just prior to the Chinese New Year, 2017 has proved to be fairly m ...
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- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Planning Commission, India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
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