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Wednesday, 12 October 16
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
 Another Monday has gone by, bringing with it further turbulence for oil. A series of meetings between high-production nations Russia & Saudi Arabia yielded statements signaling that a potential agreement to limit crude output is a possibility. According to Vladimir Putin “Russia is ready to join the joint measures to cap production and is calling for other oil exporters to join”. At the same time, Algeria has also called for similar measures to be taken by non-OPEC members. Following these events, and amidst speculation regarding the firming possibility of a Clinton presidency next month, oil surged to its highest levels this year, with the Brent futures reaching USD 53.73 and finally closing at USD 53.14 on Monday.
While the expectation of a possible agreement played its part in driving the futures to higher levels, the upward trend was short-lived with Brent falling back to USD 52.84 this morning. Growing doubts regarding whether the proposed measures would be enough to compensate for two years of oversupply, especially considering the higher production figures coming out of Libya, Nigeria and Iraq, have reigned in the index.
The strained relationship between OPEC members is also a concern, especially when it comes to Iran which, with its recent re-entry into the market, is looking to regain lost market share by increasing production. This comes into direct opposition with Saudi Arabia who has been adamant regarding Iran’s commitment to any such future agreement.
Furthermore, Iraq has also been looking at growing production next year and has been one of the main opponents of an agreement. Goldman Sachs issued a statement to clients regarding the increased possibility of a production cut deal but also stressing that markets are unlikely to rebalance within the year.
Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih expressed his confidence that a deal would be reached by November. However, he further stressed the need to tread carefully and responsibly in order to not shock the market too much. It is very much worth noting that a potential large increase in oil prices might allow high-cost exporters (such as US shale exporters for whom current prices are unprofitable) to resume production starting the cycle all over again. On the other hand, in case a deal is unattainable, it is quite likely that we will see levels towards the low-40s once again.
These events have also been felt in the tanker market. Nigerian and Brazilian outputs specifically have helped to stop the recent decline in tanker rates. With Nigerian volumes back up to around 1.8mb/d, we have seen firmer Suezmax and VL rates (at 22k/d and 40k/d respectively). Brazil's output reached 2.6mb/d in August and is on a steady climb, which is expected to last until 2025. As internal demand has declined, exports have risen with approximately 40% of Brazil crude heading to China. Despite the adverse effect oversupply has had on prices and even though demand matching supply is rather questionable at the current state of the market, it has still offered more business for tankers and, as such, higher prices for oil won’t increase demand for it.
All in all, we will have to wait until the November official OPEC meetings for further firm developments. Given the general feeling of uncertainty and multitude of market-affecting variables in play at the moment, however, any sort of long-lasting stability seems rather farfetched.
By Linos Kogevinas
Marketing—Harbour Towage & Port Agency
Cotzias Intermodal Shipping Inc.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 16 February 17
IF I PLAN TO UNDERTAKE A CHARTERPARTY WITH AN UNFAMILIAR ENTITY, WHAT STEPS CAN I TAKE TO ENSURE THE CHARTERER WILL PAY THEIR HIRE? - SHIPOWNERS' CLUB
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Due to the difficult conditions currently existing in the shipping market, particularly in the offshore sector, Members a ...
Wednesday, 15 February 17
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Looking at the state of the Dry Bulk market exactly a year ago, there is no doubt that there is a significant improvement and despite the fact that ...
Tuesday, 14 February 17
OPTIMISM HAS STARTED TO SLOWLY FLOW BACK INTO THE DRY BULK MARKET - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
Optimism has started to slowly flow back into the dry bulk market, with many in the market showing renewed optimism as the Pacific basin starts to ...
Monday, 13 February 17
COMBINED COAL SALES OF BUMI RESOURCES ROSE TO 87.7 MILLION TONS IN FY'16; UP 10.6 PERCENT Y/Y
COALspot.com: Combined Coal Sales of Bumi Resources rose to 87.7 million tons in FY’16 compared with 79.3 million tons in FY’15. ...
Monday, 13 February 17
THE FREIGHT MARKET CONTINUED TO TUMBLE IN FEBRUARY
COALspot.com: The Freight market was continued its downfall in all segments except Panamax for the week ending 10 February 2017.
The Balt ...
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- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- The University of Queensland
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Planning Commission, India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
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