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Wednesday, 12 October 16
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
 Another Monday has gone by, bringing with it further turbulence for oil. A series of meetings between high-production nations Russia & Saudi Arabia yielded statements signaling that a potential agreement to limit crude output is a possibility. According to Vladimir Putin “Russia is ready to join the joint measures to cap production and is calling for other oil exporters to join”. At the same time, Algeria has also called for similar measures to be taken by non-OPEC members. Following these events, and amidst speculation regarding the firming possibility of a Clinton presidency next month, oil surged to its highest levels this year, with the Brent futures reaching USD 53.73 and finally closing at USD 53.14 on Monday.
While the expectation of a possible agreement played its part in driving the futures to higher levels, the upward trend was short-lived with Brent falling back to USD 52.84 this morning. Growing doubts regarding whether the proposed measures would be enough to compensate for two years of oversupply, especially considering the higher production figures coming out of Libya, Nigeria and Iraq, have reigned in the index.
The strained relationship between OPEC members is also a concern, especially when it comes to Iran which, with its recent re-entry into the market, is looking to regain lost market share by increasing production. This comes into direct opposition with Saudi Arabia who has been adamant regarding Iran’s commitment to any such future agreement.
Furthermore, Iraq has also been looking at growing production next year and has been one of the main opponents of an agreement. Goldman Sachs issued a statement to clients regarding the increased possibility of a production cut deal but also stressing that markets are unlikely to rebalance within the year.
Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih expressed his confidence that a deal would be reached by November. However, he further stressed the need to tread carefully and responsibly in order to not shock the market too much. It is very much worth noting that a potential large increase in oil prices might allow high-cost exporters (such as US shale exporters for whom current prices are unprofitable) to resume production starting the cycle all over again. On the other hand, in case a deal is unattainable, it is quite likely that we will see levels towards the low-40s once again.
These events have also been felt in the tanker market. Nigerian and Brazilian outputs specifically have helped to stop the recent decline in tanker rates. With Nigerian volumes back up to around 1.8mb/d, we have seen firmer Suezmax and VL rates (at 22k/d and 40k/d respectively). Brazil's output reached 2.6mb/d in August and is on a steady climb, which is expected to last until 2025. As internal demand has declined, exports have risen with approximately 40% of Brazil crude heading to China. Despite the adverse effect oversupply has had on prices and even though demand matching supply is rather questionable at the current state of the market, it has still offered more business for tankers and, as such, higher prices for oil won’t increase demand for it.
All in all, we will have to wait until the November official OPEC meetings for further firm developments. Given the general feeling of uncertainty and multitude of market-affecting variables in play at the moment, however, any sort of long-lasting stability seems rather farfetched.
By Linos Kogevinas
Marketing—Harbour Towage & Port Agency
Cotzias Intermodal Shipping Inc.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 24 February 17
RUSSIAN OIL AND GAS WITHSTANDS OIL PRICE SHOCK - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings says in a new report that the Russian oil and gas sector has withstood the oil price stock of 1H16. Key events of 2016 include record ...
Friday, 24 February 17
US WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT ESTIMATED AT 16.8 MMST - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 16.8 million short ton ...
Thursday, 23 February 17
ULTRA SUPRAMAX: INDONESIA TO INDIA IS GETTING AROUND $10-11K BASIS SINGAPORE DELIVERY
Supramax
The week started off quietly in the Atlantic with more activity in the Pacific basin.
According to Fearnleys weekly report, frontha ...
Wednesday, 22 February 17
TANKER MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
In 2016 a session of the IMO committee in London, set the new prerequisites effective from January 2020, which will necessitate global Sulphur cont ...
Tuesday, 21 February 17
INDIA'S JANUARY COAL IMPORTS DECLINE 21.7 PERCENT YEAR -ON-YEAR TO 14.31 MT - PTI
Coal imports declined by 21.7 per cent to 14.31 million tonnes in January as the power utilities did not lift much fuel due to abundant stock avail ...
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- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- The University of Queensland
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Australian Coal Association
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Planning Commission, India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
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