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Wednesday, 12 October 16
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
 Another Monday has gone by, bringing with it further turbulence for oil. A series of meetings between high-production nations Russia & Saudi Arabia yielded statements signaling that a potential agreement to limit crude output is a possibility. According to Vladimir Putin “Russia is ready to join the joint measures to cap production and is calling for other oil exporters to join”. At the same time, Algeria has also called for similar measures to be taken by non-OPEC members. Following these events, and amidst speculation regarding the firming possibility of a Clinton presidency next month, oil surged to its highest levels this year, with the Brent futures reaching USD 53.73 and finally closing at USD 53.14 on Monday.
While the expectation of a possible agreement played its part in driving the futures to higher levels, the upward trend was short-lived with Brent falling back to USD 52.84 this morning. Growing doubts regarding whether the proposed measures would be enough to compensate for two years of oversupply, especially considering the higher production figures coming out of Libya, Nigeria and Iraq, have reigned in the index.
The strained relationship between OPEC members is also a concern, especially when it comes to Iran which, with its recent re-entry into the market, is looking to regain lost market share by increasing production. This comes into direct opposition with Saudi Arabia who has been adamant regarding Iran’s commitment to any such future agreement.
Furthermore, Iraq has also been looking at growing production next year and has been one of the main opponents of an agreement. Goldman Sachs issued a statement to clients regarding the increased possibility of a production cut deal but also stressing that markets are unlikely to rebalance within the year.
Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih expressed his confidence that a deal would be reached by November. However, he further stressed the need to tread carefully and responsibly in order to not shock the market too much. It is very much worth noting that a potential large increase in oil prices might allow high-cost exporters (such as US shale exporters for whom current prices are unprofitable) to resume production starting the cycle all over again. On the other hand, in case a deal is unattainable, it is quite likely that we will see levels towards the low-40s once again.
These events have also been felt in the tanker market. Nigerian and Brazilian outputs specifically have helped to stop the recent decline in tanker rates. With Nigerian volumes back up to around 1.8mb/d, we have seen firmer Suezmax and VL rates (at 22k/d and 40k/d respectively). Brazil's output reached 2.6mb/d in August and is on a steady climb, which is expected to last until 2025. As internal demand has declined, exports have risen with approximately 40% of Brazil crude heading to China. Despite the adverse effect oversupply has had on prices and even though demand matching supply is rather questionable at the current state of the market, it has still offered more business for tankers and, as such, higher prices for oil won’t increase demand for it.
All in all, we will have to wait until the November official OPEC meetings for further firm developments. Given the general feeling of uncertainty and multitude of market-affecting variables in play at the moment, however, any sort of long-lasting stability seems rather farfetched.
By Linos Kogevinas
Marketing—Harbour Towage & Port Agency
Cotzias Intermodal Shipping Inc.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 03 March 17
U.S. WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION ESTIMATED AT 15.7 MMST; DECLINE 6.7% W/W - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 15.7 million short ton ...
Thursday, 02 March 17
ULTRAMAX: INDONESIA TO INDIA COAL ROUNDS IS BEING FIXED AT AROUND MID 11K BSS SINGAPORE DELIVERY - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
Holiday mode within Atlantic i.e. very few movements but rates remained still positive, mostly in the USG region where tight tonnage sup ...
Wednesday, 01 March 17
2017 IS LOOKING LIKE IT WILL BE A GOOD YEAR FOR A NUMBER OF COMMODITIES - LINOS KOGEVINAS
2017 is looking like it will be a good year for a number of commodities. Following the price recovery witnessed in 2016 across a number of commodit ...
Tuesday, 28 February 17
PORT OF NEWCASTLE SHIPPED 17.39% LESS COAL IN JANUARY; TRADE VALUE UP 11.87% M/M
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export port has shipped $AU 1,625.6 M ...
Monday, 27 February 17
THE FREIGHT MARKET WAS FIRMED UP THIS PAST WEEK; BCI ROSE 57.64% W/W
COALspot.com: The Freight market was firmed up this past week.
The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commod ...
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- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
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