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Wednesday, 12 October 16
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
 Another Monday has gone by, bringing with it further turbulence for oil. A series of meetings between high-production nations Russia & Saudi Arabia yielded statements signaling that a potential agreement to limit crude output is a possibility. According to Vladimir Putin “Russia is ready to join the joint measures to cap production and is calling for other oil exporters to join”. At the same time, Algeria has also called for similar measures to be taken by non-OPEC members. Following these events, and amidst speculation regarding the firming possibility of a Clinton presidency next month, oil surged to its highest levels this year, with the Brent futures reaching USD 53.73 and finally closing at USD 53.14 on Monday.
While the expectation of a possible agreement played its part in driving the futures to higher levels, the upward trend was short-lived with Brent falling back to USD 52.84 this morning. Growing doubts regarding whether the proposed measures would be enough to compensate for two years of oversupply, especially considering the higher production figures coming out of Libya, Nigeria and Iraq, have reigned in the index.
The strained relationship between OPEC members is also a concern, especially when it comes to Iran which, with its recent re-entry into the market, is looking to regain lost market share by increasing production. This comes into direct opposition with Saudi Arabia who has been adamant regarding Iran’s commitment to any such future agreement.
Furthermore, Iraq has also been looking at growing production next year and has been one of the main opponents of an agreement. Goldman Sachs issued a statement to clients regarding the increased possibility of a production cut deal but also stressing that markets are unlikely to rebalance within the year.
Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih expressed his confidence that a deal would be reached by November. However, he further stressed the need to tread carefully and responsibly in order to not shock the market too much. It is very much worth noting that a potential large increase in oil prices might allow high-cost exporters (such as US shale exporters for whom current prices are unprofitable) to resume production starting the cycle all over again. On the other hand, in case a deal is unattainable, it is quite likely that we will see levels towards the low-40s once again.
These events have also been felt in the tanker market. Nigerian and Brazilian outputs specifically have helped to stop the recent decline in tanker rates. With Nigerian volumes back up to around 1.8mb/d, we have seen firmer Suezmax and VL rates (at 22k/d and 40k/d respectively). Brazil's output reached 2.6mb/d in August and is on a steady climb, which is expected to last until 2025. As internal demand has declined, exports have risen with approximately 40% of Brazil crude heading to China. Despite the adverse effect oversupply has had on prices and even though demand matching supply is rather questionable at the current state of the market, it has still offered more business for tankers and, as such, higher prices for oil won’t increase demand for it.
All in all, we will have to wait until the November official OPEC meetings for further firm developments. Given the general feeling of uncertainty and multitude of market-affecting variables in play at the moment, however, any sort of long-lasting stability seems rather farfetched.
By Linos Kogevinas
Marketing—Harbour Towage & Port Agency
Cotzias Intermodal Shipping Inc.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 21 February 17
CHINESE EXPORTS SHOWED A YEAR-ON-YEAR RISE FOR THE FIRST TIME IN TEN MONTHS; S. KOREA'S EXPORTS UP FOR PAST THREE MONTHS IN A ROW - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
We have started to some sparks of life in the commodities markets these past weeks, with prices having shown a strong push during the past couple o ...
Tuesday, 21 February 17
CHINA SUSPENDS COAL IMPORTS FROM NORTH KOREA FROM 19 FEB
COALspot.com: China is suspended coal imports from North Korea until December 2017. China says it will suspend all imports of coal from North Korea ...
Monday, 20 February 17
OCEAN FREIGHT RATES SLIGHTLY UP WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: The Freight market was firmed up this past week. The Panamax segment was declined for the week ending 17 February 2017.
The Balt ...
Friday, 17 February 17
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION SLIPS SLIGHTLY WEEK OVER WEEK, SAYS EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 16.5 million sh ...
Thursday, 16 February 17
CAPE MARKET HAVE EXPERIENCED A STRONG DOWNTURN - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
Market has shifted sides from Atlantic to Pacific, where Atlantic is now lagging behind with little action and sliding indices, notably ...
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- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Planning Commission, India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- The University of Queensland
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Economic Council, Georgia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
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