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Wednesday, 12 October 16
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
 Another Monday has gone by, bringing with it further turbulence for oil. A series of meetings between high-production nations Russia & Saudi Arabia yielded statements signaling that a potential agreement to limit crude output is a possibility. According to Vladimir Putin “Russia is ready to join the joint measures to cap production and is calling for other oil exporters to join”. At the same time, Algeria has also called for similar measures to be taken by non-OPEC members. Following these events, and amidst speculation regarding the firming possibility of a Clinton presidency next month, oil surged to its highest levels this year, with the Brent futures reaching USD 53.73 and finally closing at USD 53.14 on Monday.
While the expectation of a possible agreement played its part in driving the futures to higher levels, the upward trend was short-lived with Brent falling back to USD 52.84 this morning. Growing doubts regarding whether the proposed measures would be enough to compensate for two years of oversupply, especially considering the higher production figures coming out of Libya, Nigeria and Iraq, have reigned in the index.
The strained relationship between OPEC members is also a concern, especially when it comes to Iran which, with its recent re-entry into the market, is looking to regain lost market share by increasing production. This comes into direct opposition with Saudi Arabia who has been adamant regarding Iran’s commitment to any such future agreement.
Furthermore, Iraq has also been looking at growing production next year and has been one of the main opponents of an agreement. Goldman Sachs issued a statement to clients regarding the increased possibility of a production cut deal but also stressing that markets are unlikely to rebalance within the year.
Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih expressed his confidence that a deal would be reached by November. However, he further stressed the need to tread carefully and responsibly in order to not shock the market too much. It is very much worth noting that a potential large increase in oil prices might allow high-cost exporters (such as US shale exporters for whom current prices are unprofitable) to resume production starting the cycle all over again. On the other hand, in case a deal is unattainable, it is quite likely that we will see levels towards the low-40s once again.
These events have also been felt in the tanker market. Nigerian and Brazilian outputs specifically have helped to stop the recent decline in tanker rates. With Nigerian volumes back up to around 1.8mb/d, we have seen firmer Suezmax and VL rates (at 22k/d and 40k/d respectively). Brazil's output reached 2.6mb/d in August and is on a steady climb, which is expected to last until 2025. As internal demand has declined, exports have risen with approximately 40% of Brazil crude heading to China. Despite the adverse effect oversupply has had on prices and even though demand matching supply is rather questionable at the current state of the market, it has still offered more business for tankers and, as such, higher prices for oil won’t increase demand for it.
All in all, we will have to wait until the November official OPEC meetings for further firm developments. Given the general feeling of uncertainty and multitude of market-affecting variables in play at the moment, however, any sort of long-lasting stability seems rather farfetched.
By Linos Kogevinas
Marketing—Harbour Towage & Port Agency
Cotzias Intermodal Shipping Inc.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 10 February 17
U.S. COAL OUTPUT IS ESTIMATED TO HAVE DECLINED BY 158 MMST IN 2016 TO 739 MMST, SAYS EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 17 million short tons ...
Wednesday, 08 February 17
MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS MAKRINOS
The challenges the oil market has witnessed since the end of 2014 has resulted in a crisis for the global offshore oil and gas exploration industry ...
Tuesday, 07 February 17
WE ARE STILL RIDING ON A WAVE OF MARKET IMPROVEMENT, WITH THE GLOBAL TRADE OF MOST COMMODITIES STILL SHOWING SIGNS OF IMPROVING GROWTH - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
The end of 2016 came with a rejuvenated sentiment amongst most traders and investors, in part through the sigh of relief that 2016 was finally comi ...
Monday, 06 February 17
AFTER MONTHS OF GAINS, THE INDONESIAN GOVERNMENT DECLARED MONTHLY COAL BENCHMARK PRICE IS STEADILY DROPPING
COALspot.com: Over the past two months, the HBA of Indonesian thermal coal has dropped around 18.06 percent. It sank to $ 83.32 per ton for Februar ...
Monday, 06 February 17
THE FREIGHT MARKET CONTINUED ITS DOWNFALL IN ALL SEGMENTS
COALspot.com: Due to Lunar year holidays and celebration, the Freight market was declined in all segments week ending 27 January. The fall was cont ...
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- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Planning Commission, India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
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