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Wednesday, 12 October 16
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
 Another Monday has gone by, bringing with it further turbulence for oil. A series of meetings between high-production nations Russia & Saudi Arabia yielded statements signaling that a potential agreement to limit crude output is a possibility. According to Vladimir Putin “Russia is ready to join the joint measures to cap production and is calling for other oil exporters to join”. At the same time, Algeria has also called for similar measures to be taken by non-OPEC members. Following these events, and amidst speculation regarding the firming possibility of a Clinton presidency next month, oil surged to its highest levels this year, with the Brent futures reaching USD 53.73 and finally closing at USD 53.14 on Monday.
While the expectation of a possible agreement played its part in driving the futures to higher levels, the upward trend was short-lived with Brent falling back to USD 52.84 this morning. Growing doubts regarding whether the proposed measures would be enough to compensate for two years of oversupply, especially considering the higher production figures coming out of Libya, Nigeria and Iraq, have reigned in the index.
The strained relationship between OPEC members is also a concern, especially when it comes to Iran which, with its recent re-entry into the market, is looking to regain lost market share by increasing production. This comes into direct opposition with Saudi Arabia who has been adamant regarding Iran’s commitment to any such future agreement.
Furthermore, Iraq has also been looking at growing production next year and has been one of the main opponents of an agreement. Goldman Sachs issued a statement to clients regarding the increased possibility of a production cut deal but also stressing that markets are unlikely to rebalance within the year.
Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih expressed his confidence that a deal would be reached by November. However, he further stressed the need to tread carefully and responsibly in order to not shock the market too much. It is very much worth noting that a potential large increase in oil prices might allow high-cost exporters (such as US shale exporters for whom current prices are unprofitable) to resume production starting the cycle all over again. On the other hand, in case a deal is unattainable, it is quite likely that we will see levels towards the low-40s once again.
These events have also been felt in the tanker market. Nigerian and Brazilian outputs specifically have helped to stop the recent decline in tanker rates. With Nigerian volumes back up to around 1.8mb/d, we have seen firmer Suezmax and VL rates (at 22k/d and 40k/d respectively). Brazil's output reached 2.6mb/d in August and is on a steady climb, which is expected to last until 2025. As internal demand has declined, exports have risen with approximately 40% of Brazil crude heading to China. Despite the adverse effect oversupply has had on prices and even though demand matching supply is rather questionable at the current state of the market, it has still offered more business for tankers and, as such, higher prices for oil won’t increase demand for it.
All in all, we will have to wait until the November official OPEC meetings for further firm developments. Given the general feeling of uncertainty and multitude of market-affecting variables in play at the moment, however, any sort of long-lasting stability seems rather farfetched.
By Linos Kogevinas
Marketing—Harbour Towage & Port Agency
Cotzias Intermodal Shipping Inc.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 16 March 17
CAPESIZE: SHOWING STRENGTH; PANAMAX: VERY QUIET - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
The Atlantic market faced less activity from the USG whereas at the Cont tonnage seemed to tighten up with more cargoes emerging. Despit ...
Wednesday, 15 March 17
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE PANAGOPOULOS
Over the past two weeks, the Dry Baltic Index has been on an upward trend, breaking the 1000 point mark and creating a positive sentiment for the u ...
Tuesday, 14 March 17
ORDERBOOK-TO-FEET RATIO DECREASING; THE FREIGHT MARKET IMPROVING
It seems as though the renewed optimism that has arisen from the recent upward trends being noted in the freight market, the dry bulk market has be ...
Monday, 13 March 17
PORT OF NEWCASTLE HAS SHIPPED 11.563 MILLION TONS COAL IN FEBRUARY 2017; DECLINED 12.19 PERCENT M/M
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export ports has shipped $AU 1,4 ...
Monday, 13 March 17
INDO - INDIA COAL FREIGHT RATES STAY FIRM
COALspot.com: The Freight market was continuing to firming up.
The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities ros ...
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- Australian Coal Association
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
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