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Wednesday, 12 October 16
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
 Another Monday has gone by, bringing with it further turbulence for oil. A series of meetings between high-production nations Russia & Saudi Arabia yielded statements signaling that a potential agreement to limit crude output is a possibility. According to Vladimir Putin “Russia is ready to join the joint measures to cap production and is calling for other oil exporters to join”. At the same time, Algeria has also called for similar measures to be taken by non-OPEC members. Following these events, and amidst speculation regarding the firming possibility of a Clinton presidency next month, oil surged to its highest levels this year, with the Brent futures reaching USD 53.73 and finally closing at USD 53.14 on Monday.
While the expectation of a possible agreement played its part in driving the futures to higher levels, the upward trend was short-lived with Brent falling back to USD 52.84 this morning. Growing doubts regarding whether the proposed measures would be enough to compensate for two years of oversupply, especially considering the higher production figures coming out of Libya, Nigeria and Iraq, have reigned in the index.
The strained relationship between OPEC members is also a concern, especially when it comes to Iran which, with its recent re-entry into the market, is looking to regain lost market share by increasing production. This comes into direct opposition with Saudi Arabia who has been adamant regarding Iran’s commitment to any such future agreement.
Furthermore, Iraq has also been looking at growing production next year and has been one of the main opponents of an agreement. Goldman Sachs issued a statement to clients regarding the increased possibility of a production cut deal but also stressing that markets are unlikely to rebalance within the year.
Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih expressed his confidence that a deal would be reached by November. However, he further stressed the need to tread carefully and responsibly in order to not shock the market too much. It is very much worth noting that a potential large increase in oil prices might allow high-cost exporters (such as US shale exporters for whom current prices are unprofitable) to resume production starting the cycle all over again. On the other hand, in case a deal is unattainable, it is quite likely that we will see levels towards the low-40s once again.
These events have also been felt in the tanker market. Nigerian and Brazilian outputs specifically have helped to stop the recent decline in tanker rates. With Nigerian volumes back up to around 1.8mb/d, we have seen firmer Suezmax and VL rates (at 22k/d and 40k/d respectively). Brazil's output reached 2.6mb/d in August and is on a steady climb, which is expected to last until 2025. As internal demand has declined, exports have risen with approximately 40% of Brazil crude heading to China. Despite the adverse effect oversupply has had on prices and even though demand matching supply is rather questionable at the current state of the market, it has still offered more business for tankers and, as such, higher prices for oil won’t increase demand for it.
All in all, we will have to wait until the November official OPEC meetings for further firm developments. Given the general feeling of uncertainty and multitude of market-affecting variables in play at the moment, however, any sort of long-lasting stability seems rather farfetched.
By Linos Kogevinas
Marketing—Harbour Towage & Port Agency
Cotzias Intermodal Shipping Inc.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 21 March 17
DESPITE THE CHALLENGING MARKET SITUATION IN 2016 THE DELTA DUNIA MAKMUR HAS ACHIEVED A NET PROFIT OF US$37 MILLION
COALspot.com: PT Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk. has announced its financial results for the period ended December 31, 2016.
Despite challenging marke ...
Tuesday, 21 March 17
JAPAN'S RENEWED COMMITMENT TO COAL - BENJAMIN SPORTON
Japan is one of the largest economies in the world, and has long been a major consumer and importer of energy and a leader in energy technology dev ...
Monday, 20 March 17
IS THE DRY BULK INDUSTRY STILL ON TRACK FOR PROFITABILITY IN 2019? - PETER SAND
The industry remains well on target for profitable freight rates in 2019! This relies however, on the projected fleet supply growth rate of 0% in 2 ...
Friday, 17 March 17
U.S WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT VOLUME SLIDES 6.5 PERCENT WEEK OVER WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 14.7 million short ton ...
Thursday, 16 March 17
CHINA IMPOSING TOUGHER CONTROLS ON LOW-QUALITY COAL IMPORTS
China is ramping up controls on imports of low-quality coal due to concerns about smog and overcapacity in the world’s top coal consumer, a g ...
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- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- PTC India Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Planning Commission, India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
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