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Wednesday, 12 October 16
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
 Another Monday has gone by, bringing with it further turbulence for oil. A series of meetings between high-production nations Russia & Saudi Arabia yielded statements signaling that a potential agreement to limit crude output is a possibility. According to Vladimir Putin “Russia is ready to join the joint measures to cap production and is calling for other oil exporters to join”. At the same time, Algeria has also called for similar measures to be taken by non-OPEC members. Following these events, and amidst speculation regarding the firming possibility of a Clinton presidency next month, oil surged to its highest levels this year, with the Brent futures reaching USD 53.73 and finally closing at USD 53.14 on Monday.
While the expectation of a possible agreement played its part in driving the futures to higher levels, the upward trend was short-lived with Brent falling back to USD 52.84 this morning. Growing doubts regarding whether the proposed measures would be enough to compensate for two years of oversupply, especially considering the higher production figures coming out of Libya, Nigeria and Iraq, have reigned in the index.
The strained relationship between OPEC members is also a concern, especially when it comes to Iran which, with its recent re-entry into the market, is looking to regain lost market share by increasing production. This comes into direct opposition with Saudi Arabia who has been adamant regarding Iran’s commitment to any such future agreement.
Furthermore, Iraq has also been looking at growing production next year and has been one of the main opponents of an agreement. Goldman Sachs issued a statement to clients regarding the increased possibility of a production cut deal but also stressing that markets are unlikely to rebalance within the year.
Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih expressed his confidence that a deal would be reached by November. However, he further stressed the need to tread carefully and responsibly in order to not shock the market too much. It is very much worth noting that a potential large increase in oil prices might allow high-cost exporters (such as US shale exporters for whom current prices are unprofitable) to resume production starting the cycle all over again. On the other hand, in case a deal is unattainable, it is quite likely that we will see levels towards the low-40s once again.
These events have also been felt in the tanker market. Nigerian and Brazilian outputs specifically have helped to stop the recent decline in tanker rates. With Nigerian volumes back up to around 1.8mb/d, we have seen firmer Suezmax and VL rates (at 22k/d and 40k/d respectively). Brazil's output reached 2.6mb/d in August and is on a steady climb, which is expected to last until 2025. As internal demand has declined, exports have risen with approximately 40% of Brazil crude heading to China. Despite the adverse effect oversupply has had on prices and even though demand matching supply is rather questionable at the current state of the market, it has still offered more business for tankers and, as such, higher prices for oil won’t increase demand for it.
All in all, we will have to wait until the November official OPEC meetings for further firm developments. Given the general feeling of uncertainty and multitude of market-affecting variables in play at the moment, however, any sort of long-lasting stability seems rather farfetched.
By Linos Kogevinas
Marketing—Harbour Towage & Port Agency
Cotzias Intermodal Shipping Inc.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 30 March 17
WHERE AN AGREEMENT FAILS TO DELIVER - WATSON FARLEY & WILLIAMS
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Watson Farley & Williams acted for MRI Trading AG in a leading case on ‘agreements to agree’ that was fin ...
Thursday, 30 March 17
PANAMAX : ACTIVITY IN THE PANAMAX MARKET HAS INCREASED SUBSTANTIALLY IN BOTH HEMISPHERES - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
This week we were looking at prolonged activity from ECSA, mostly with grain cargoes to Far East and SE Asia, where Ultras to SE Asia fi ...
Thursday, 30 March 17
THE ROLE OF COAL IN THE ENERGY SUPPLY OF THE EU-28: HANS-WILHELM SCHIFFER
The European Union (EU-28) is one of the largest economies in the world, with a gross domestic product (GDP) of €14,635 billion in 2015. It ha ...
Wednesday, 29 March 17
MARKET INSIGHT - NASOS SOULAKIS
Shipowners will always look for market signals in order to gauge market perception and decide upon which strategy to follow next. And while owners ...
Monday, 27 March 17
THE FREIGHT MARKET CONTINUED TO FIRM WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: The Freight market was continuing to firming up.
The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities ros ...
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- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Planning Commission, India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Australian Coal Association
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
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