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Wednesday, 12 October 16
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
 Another Monday has gone by, bringing with it further turbulence for oil. A series of meetings between high-production nations Russia & Saudi Arabia yielded statements signaling that a potential agreement to limit crude output is a possibility. According to Vladimir Putin “Russia is ready to join the joint measures to cap production and is calling for other oil exporters to join”. At the same time, Algeria has also called for similar measures to be taken by non-OPEC members. Following these events, and amidst speculation regarding the firming possibility of a Clinton presidency next month, oil surged to its highest levels this year, with the Brent futures reaching USD 53.73 and finally closing at USD 53.14 on Monday.
While the expectation of a possible agreement played its part in driving the futures to higher levels, the upward trend was short-lived with Brent falling back to USD 52.84 this morning. Growing doubts regarding whether the proposed measures would be enough to compensate for two years of oversupply, especially considering the higher production figures coming out of Libya, Nigeria and Iraq, have reigned in the index.
The strained relationship between OPEC members is also a concern, especially when it comes to Iran which, with its recent re-entry into the market, is looking to regain lost market share by increasing production. This comes into direct opposition with Saudi Arabia who has been adamant regarding Iran’s commitment to any such future agreement.
Furthermore, Iraq has also been looking at growing production next year and has been one of the main opponents of an agreement. Goldman Sachs issued a statement to clients regarding the increased possibility of a production cut deal but also stressing that markets are unlikely to rebalance within the year.
Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih expressed his confidence that a deal would be reached by November. However, he further stressed the need to tread carefully and responsibly in order to not shock the market too much. It is very much worth noting that a potential large increase in oil prices might allow high-cost exporters (such as US shale exporters for whom current prices are unprofitable) to resume production starting the cycle all over again. On the other hand, in case a deal is unattainable, it is quite likely that we will see levels towards the low-40s once again.
These events have also been felt in the tanker market. Nigerian and Brazilian outputs specifically have helped to stop the recent decline in tanker rates. With Nigerian volumes back up to around 1.8mb/d, we have seen firmer Suezmax and VL rates (at 22k/d and 40k/d respectively). Brazil's output reached 2.6mb/d in August and is on a steady climb, which is expected to last until 2025. As internal demand has declined, exports have risen with approximately 40% of Brazil crude heading to China. Despite the adverse effect oversupply has had on prices and even though demand matching supply is rather questionable at the current state of the market, it has still offered more business for tankers and, as such, higher prices for oil won’t increase demand for it.
All in all, we will have to wait until the November official OPEC meetings for further firm developments. Given the general feeling of uncertainty and multitude of market-affecting variables in play at the moment, however, any sort of long-lasting stability seems rather farfetched.
By Linos Kogevinas
Marketing—Harbour Towage & Port Agency
Cotzias Intermodal Shipping Inc.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 12 April 17
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - VASSILIS VASSILIOU
The first quarter of 2017 started relatively busy for the ship repair sector, with most of the repair facilities being nearly fully occupied till t ...
Monday, 10 April 17
THE CAPE INDEX WAS DOWN BY 16.32% WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: The Freight market was steady week over a week except for Cape. The cape index was down 16.32 percent week over week.
The Baltic ...
Friday, 07 April 17
INDONESIAN GOVERNMENT DECLARED SPOT COAL PRICES STAGE FIRST INCREASE OF THE YEAR
COALspot.com: Indonesian government declared coal benchmark price rose slightly in April, government data showed.
The benchmark price of Indon ...
Friday, 07 April 17
U.S WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT ALMOST FLAT WEEK OVER WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totaled an estimated 14.5 million short tons ...
Thursday, 06 April 17
PANAMAX: THE MARKET HAS CONTINUED THE FIRM SENTIMENT FROM LAST WEEK IN BOTH HEMISPHERES - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
With holidays in Asia, the week has started very slow in Pacific. Some fixtures have still been done and levels have remained quite stab ...
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- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
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