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Wednesday, 12 October 16
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
 Another Monday has gone by, bringing with it further turbulence for oil. A series of meetings between high-production nations Russia & Saudi Arabia yielded statements signaling that a potential agreement to limit crude output is a possibility. According to Vladimir Putin “Russia is ready to join the joint measures to cap production and is calling for other oil exporters to join”. At the same time, Algeria has also called for similar measures to be taken by non-OPEC members. Following these events, and amidst speculation regarding the firming possibility of a Clinton presidency next month, oil surged to its highest levels this year, with the Brent futures reaching USD 53.73 and finally closing at USD 53.14 on Monday.
While the expectation of a possible agreement played its part in driving the futures to higher levels, the upward trend was short-lived with Brent falling back to USD 52.84 this morning. Growing doubts regarding whether the proposed measures would be enough to compensate for two years of oversupply, especially considering the higher production figures coming out of Libya, Nigeria and Iraq, have reigned in the index.
The strained relationship between OPEC members is also a concern, especially when it comes to Iran which, with its recent re-entry into the market, is looking to regain lost market share by increasing production. This comes into direct opposition with Saudi Arabia who has been adamant regarding Iran’s commitment to any such future agreement.
Furthermore, Iraq has also been looking at growing production next year and has been one of the main opponents of an agreement. Goldman Sachs issued a statement to clients regarding the increased possibility of a production cut deal but also stressing that markets are unlikely to rebalance within the year.
Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih expressed his confidence that a deal would be reached by November. However, he further stressed the need to tread carefully and responsibly in order to not shock the market too much. It is very much worth noting that a potential large increase in oil prices might allow high-cost exporters (such as US shale exporters for whom current prices are unprofitable) to resume production starting the cycle all over again. On the other hand, in case a deal is unattainable, it is quite likely that we will see levels towards the low-40s once again.
These events have also been felt in the tanker market. Nigerian and Brazilian outputs specifically have helped to stop the recent decline in tanker rates. With Nigerian volumes back up to around 1.8mb/d, we have seen firmer Suezmax and VL rates (at 22k/d and 40k/d respectively). Brazil's output reached 2.6mb/d in August and is on a steady climb, which is expected to last until 2025. As internal demand has declined, exports have risen with approximately 40% of Brazil crude heading to China. Despite the adverse effect oversupply has had on prices and even though demand matching supply is rather questionable at the current state of the market, it has still offered more business for tankers and, as such, higher prices for oil won’t increase demand for it.
All in all, we will have to wait until the November official OPEC meetings for further firm developments. Given the general feeling of uncertainty and multitude of market-affecting variables in play at the moment, however, any sort of long-lasting stability seems rather farfetched.
By Linos Kogevinas
Marketing—Harbour Towage & Port Agency
Cotzias Intermodal Shipping Inc.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 05 April 17
THE AVERAGE SECOND HAND PANAMAXES AND CAPES PRICES FOR A 5-YR OLD VESSEL HAS INCREASED MORE THAN 19% AND 20% RESPECTIVELY M/M - INTERMODAL
With the help of what so far appears to be a very strong grain season together with the fact that imports from China have remained so far robust in ...
Tuesday, 04 April 17
THE IRON ORE HAS BEEN ABLE TO KEEP ITS GROWTH PATH FAIRLY WELL; THERE IS STILL ONE PART OF THE WORLD THAT IS STILL HEAVILY COMMITTED TO COAL
With the close of March having let us with a very positive after taste and having witnessed near the end of the month the Baltic Dry Index at its h ...
Monday, 03 April 17
WORLD COAL TRADE STABLE IN 2016: DEMAND SHIFTS TO SOUTH-EAST ASIA - ASSOCARBONI
ASSOCARBONI: Coal confirmed as the leading fuel for electricity generation, accounting for 40% of overall production in 2016.
World coal trade ...
Monday, 03 April 17
DRY BULK RATES CONTINUING TO FIRMING UP
COALspot.com: The Freight market was continuing to firming up. Baltic Panamax Index rose 12.81 percent week over week.
The Baltic Exchang ...
Friday, 31 March 17
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION INCREASE SLIGHTLY WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totaled an estimated 14.5 million short tons ...
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- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
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- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Australian Coal Association
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- The University of Queensland
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Parliament of New Zealand
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