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Wednesday, 12 October 16
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
 Another Monday has gone by, bringing with it further turbulence for oil. A series of meetings between high-production nations Russia & Saudi Arabia yielded statements signaling that a potential agreement to limit crude output is a possibility. According to Vladimir Putin “Russia is ready to join the joint measures to cap production and is calling for other oil exporters to join”. At the same time, Algeria has also called for similar measures to be taken by non-OPEC members. Following these events, and amidst speculation regarding the firming possibility of a Clinton presidency next month, oil surged to its highest levels this year, with the Brent futures reaching USD 53.73 and finally closing at USD 53.14 on Monday.
While the expectation of a possible agreement played its part in driving the futures to higher levels, the upward trend was short-lived with Brent falling back to USD 52.84 this morning. Growing doubts regarding whether the proposed measures would be enough to compensate for two years of oversupply, especially considering the higher production figures coming out of Libya, Nigeria and Iraq, have reigned in the index.
The strained relationship between OPEC members is also a concern, especially when it comes to Iran which, with its recent re-entry into the market, is looking to regain lost market share by increasing production. This comes into direct opposition with Saudi Arabia who has been adamant regarding Iran’s commitment to any such future agreement.
Furthermore, Iraq has also been looking at growing production next year and has been one of the main opponents of an agreement. Goldman Sachs issued a statement to clients regarding the increased possibility of a production cut deal but also stressing that markets are unlikely to rebalance within the year.
Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih expressed his confidence that a deal would be reached by November. However, he further stressed the need to tread carefully and responsibly in order to not shock the market too much. It is very much worth noting that a potential large increase in oil prices might allow high-cost exporters (such as US shale exporters for whom current prices are unprofitable) to resume production starting the cycle all over again. On the other hand, in case a deal is unattainable, it is quite likely that we will see levels towards the low-40s once again.
These events have also been felt in the tanker market. Nigerian and Brazilian outputs specifically have helped to stop the recent decline in tanker rates. With Nigerian volumes back up to around 1.8mb/d, we have seen firmer Suezmax and VL rates (at 22k/d and 40k/d respectively). Brazil's output reached 2.6mb/d in August and is on a steady climb, which is expected to last until 2025. As internal demand has declined, exports have risen with approximately 40% of Brazil crude heading to China. Despite the adverse effect oversupply has had on prices and even though demand matching supply is rather questionable at the current state of the market, it has still offered more business for tankers and, as such, higher prices for oil won’t increase demand for it.
All in all, we will have to wait until the November official OPEC meetings for further firm developments. Given the general feeling of uncertainty and multitude of market-affecting variables in play at the moment, however, any sort of long-lasting stability seems rather farfetched.
By Linos Kogevinas
Marketing—Harbour Towage & Port Agency
Cotzias Intermodal Shipping Inc.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 24 March 17
ADARO INDONESIA'S COAL SALES VOLUME INCREASED SLIGHTLY TO 54.1 MILLION TONES IN 2016
COALspot.com: PT. Adaro Indonesia, Indonesia’s second largest coal miner’s sales volume increased slightly to 54.1 million tones (Mt) i ...
Friday, 24 March 17
U.S COAL PRODUCTION ESTIMATE DECLINE 4.4% W/W - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totaled an estimated 14.1 million short tons ...
Thursday, 23 March 17
CAPESIZE: TAKING A BREATHER AFTER RALLYING - BUT OUTLOOK FOR WEEKS TO COME NOT SCARY - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
In the Pacific the market seems somewhat slower this week, although healthy rates still being achieved said Fearnleys in its latest week ...
Thursday, 23 March 17
KOREA MIDLAND POWER COMPANY LIMITED INVITES BIDS FOR TOTAL 4.77 MILLION TONS OF BITUMINOUS COAL FOR ITS BORYEONG POWER PLANT
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued a new tender for 2,090,000 Metric Tons of Bituminous coal f ...
Wednesday, 22 March 17
THE DRY BULK MARKET HAS UNDOUBTEDLY REBOUNDED SINCE THE SAME PERIOD LAST YEAR - KONSTANTINOS KONTOMICHIS
The Dry Bulk market has undoubtedly rebounded since the same period last year and currently enjoys healthier freight rates. The positive reversal i ...
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- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
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