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Wednesday, 12 October 16
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
 Another Monday has gone by, bringing with it further turbulence for oil. A series of meetings between high-production nations Russia & Saudi Arabia yielded statements signaling that a potential agreement to limit crude output is a possibility. According to Vladimir Putin “Russia is ready to join the joint measures to cap production and is calling for other oil exporters to join”. At the same time, Algeria has also called for similar measures to be taken by non-OPEC members. Following these events, and amidst speculation regarding the firming possibility of a Clinton presidency next month, oil surged to its highest levels this year, with the Brent futures reaching USD 53.73 and finally closing at USD 53.14 on Monday.
While the expectation of a possible agreement played its part in driving the futures to higher levels, the upward trend was short-lived with Brent falling back to USD 52.84 this morning. Growing doubts regarding whether the proposed measures would be enough to compensate for two years of oversupply, especially considering the higher production figures coming out of Libya, Nigeria and Iraq, have reigned in the index.
The strained relationship between OPEC members is also a concern, especially when it comes to Iran which, with its recent re-entry into the market, is looking to regain lost market share by increasing production. This comes into direct opposition with Saudi Arabia who has been adamant regarding Iran’s commitment to any such future agreement.
Furthermore, Iraq has also been looking at growing production next year and has been one of the main opponents of an agreement. Goldman Sachs issued a statement to clients regarding the increased possibility of a production cut deal but also stressing that markets are unlikely to rebalance within the year.
Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih expressed his confidence that a deal would be reached by November. However, he further stressed the need to tread carefully and responsibly in order to not shock the market too much. It is very much worth noting that a potential large increase in oil prices might allow high-cost exporters (such as US shale exporters for whom current prices are unprofitable) to resume production starting the cycle all over again. On the other hand, in case a deal is unattainable, it is quite likely that we will see levels towards the low-40s once again.
These events have also been felt in the tanker market. Nigerian and Brazilian outputs specifically have helped to stop the recent decline in tanker rates. With Nigerian volumes back up to around 1.8mb/d, we have seen firmer Suezmax and VL rates (at 22k/d and 40k/d respectively). Brazil's output reached 2.6mb/d in August and is on a steady climb, which is expected to last until 2025. As internal demand has declined, exports have risen with approximately 40% of Brazil crude heading to China. Despite the adverse effect oversupply has had on prices and even though demand matching supply is rather questionable at the current state of the market, it has still offered more business for tankers and, as such, higher prices for oil won’t increase demand for it.
All in all, we will have to wait until the November official OPEC meetings for further firm developments. Given the general feeling of uncertainty and multitude of market-affecting variables in play at the moment, however, any sort of long-lasting stability seems rather farfetched.
By Linos Kogevinas
Marketing—Harbour Towage & Port Agency
Cotzias Intermodal Shipping Inc.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 20 April 17
CHINA'S IMPORT OF IRON ORE TO PROPEL DRY BULK SHIPPING DEMAND IN 2017 - PETER SAND
China's import of iron ore will continue to be a key driver for the demand growth in 2017 for the dry bulk shipping industry, alongside shippin ...
Monday, 17 April 17
THE PANAMAX INDEX (BPI) ROSE (12.89%) WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: The Freight market was firm, week over a week as all segments show a positive upward trend this past week.
The Baltic Exchange, ...
Monday, 17 April 17
U.S. WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT FELL 5% WEEK OVER WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totaled an estimated 13.8 million short tons ...
Thursday, 13 April 17
OPEC OVER-DELIVERS ON OIL CUTS, BUT SEES RIVALS' OUTPUT RISING
Crude Oil Price Movements
The OPEC Reference Basket averaged $50.32/b in March, representing a decline of 5.7% from the previous month. Crude fut ...
Wednesday, 12 April 17
THE PORT OF NEWCASTLE SHIPPED 13.791 MILLION TONS OF COAL IN MARCH 2017
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export ports has shipped $AU 1,688.5 ...
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- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- VISA Power Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PTC India Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
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