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Wednesday, 12 October 16
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
 Another Monday has gone by, bringing with it further turbulence for oil. A series of meetings between high-production nations Russia & Saudi Arabia yielded statements signaling that a potential agreement to limit crude output is a possibility. According to Vladimir Putin “Russia is ready to join the joint measures to cap production and is calling for other oil exporters to join”. At the same time, Algeria has also called for similar measures to be taken by non-OPEC members. Following these events, and amidst speculation regarding the firming possibility of a Clinton presidency next month, oil surged to its highest levels this year, with the Brent futures reaching USD 53.73 and finally closing at USD 53.14 on Monday.
While the expectation of a possible agreement played its part in driving the futures to higher levels, the upward trend was short-lived with Brent falling back to USD 52.84 this morning. Growing doubts regarding whether the proposed measures would be enough to compensate for two years of oversupply, especially considering the higher production figures coming out of Libya, Nigeria and Iraq, have reigned in the index.
The strained relationship between OPEC members is also a concern, especially when it comes to Iran which, with its recent re-entry into the market, is looking to regain lost market share by increasing production. This comes into direct opposition with Saudi Arabia who has been adamant regarding Iran’s commitment to any such future agreement.
Furthermore, Iraq has also been looking at growing production next year and has been one of the main opponents of an agreement. Goldman Sachs issued a statement to clients regarding the increased possibility of a production cut deal but also stressing that markets are unlikely to rebalance within the year.
Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih expressed his confidence that a deal would be reached by November. However, he further stressed the need to tread carefully and responsibly in order to not shock the market too much. It is very much worth noting that a potential large increase in oil prices might allow high-cost exporters (such as US shale exporters for whom current prices are unprofitable) to resume production starting the cycle all over again. On the other hand, in case a deal is unattainable, it is quite likely that we will see levels towards the low-40s once again.
These events have also been felt in the tanker market. Nigerian and Brazilian outputs specifically have helped to stop the recent decline in tanker rates. With Nigerian volumes back up to around 1.8mb/d, we have seen firmer Suezmax and VL rates (at 22k/d and 40k/d respectively). Brazil's output reached 2.6mb/d in August and is on a steady climb, which is expected to last until 2025. As internal demand has declined, exports have risen with approximately 40% of Brazil crude heading to China. Despite the adverse effect oversupply has had on prices and even though demand matching supply is rather questionable at the current state of the market, it has still offered more business for tankers and, as such, higher prices for oil won’t increase demand for it.
All in all, we will have to wait until the November official OPEC meetings for further firm developments. Given the general feeling of uncertainty and multitude of market-affecting variables in play at the moment, however, any sort of long-lasting stability seems rather farfetched.
By Linos Kogevinas
Marketing—Harbour Towage & Port Agency
Cotzias Intermodal Shipping Inc.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 28 April 17
U.S PRODUCED LESS COAL THIS PAST WEEK COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totaled an estimated 14 million short tons ( ...
Friday, 28 April 17
DELTA DUNIA RECORDED $24 MILLION NET PROFIT FOR FIRST QUARTER OF 2017; UP 700% Y/Y
COALspot.com: PT Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk. has announced its financial results for the first quarter of 2017 yesterday. According to the ...
Thursday, 27 April 17
PACIFIC IS SOFTENING WITH MORE TONNAGE OPENING AND LESS COAL ORDERS AROUND - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
Relatively slow week, with both basins showing signs of cooling down. Although grain cargoes out ECSA and ECCA on Ultras still delivered ...
Wednesday, 26 April 17
IRON ORE PRICES HAVE BEEN ON A ROLLERCOASTER RIDE OVER THE LAST MONTH - CHRISTOPHER WHITTY
Iron ore prices have been on a rollercoaster ride over the last month. Prices started the year on a very positive note, surging up to their highest ...
Tuesday, 25 April 17
FIONA POUNDS: VALID TENDER OF NOTICE OF READINESS
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
In the recent English High Court case of MV Arundel Castle1, the Judge ruled that a vessel, that could not immediately pr ...
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- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Planning Commission, India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Australian Coal Association
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
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