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Wednesday, 12 October 16
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
 Another Monday has gone by, bringing with it further turbulence for oil. A series of meetings between high-production nations Russia & Saudi Arabia yielded statements signaling that a potential agreement to limit crude output is a possibility. According to Vladimir Putin “Russia is ready to join the joint measures to cap production and is calling for other oil exporters to join”. At the same time, Algeria has also called for similar measures to be taken by non-OPEC members. Following these events, and amidst speculation regarding the firming possibility of a Clinton presidency next month, oil surged to its highest levels this year, with the Brent futures reaching USD 53.73 and finally closing at USD 53.14 on Monday.
While the expectation of a possible agreement played its part in driving the futures to higher levels, the upward trend was short-lived with Brent falling back to USD 52.84 this morning. Growing doubts regarding whether the proposed measures would be enough to compensate for two years of oversupply, especially considering the higher production figures coming out of Libya, Nigeria and Iraq, have reigned in the index.
The strained relationship between OPEC members is also a concern, especially when it comes to Iran which, with its recent re-entry into the market, is looking to regain lost market share by increasing production. This comes into direct opposition with Saudi Arabia who has been adamant regarding Iran’s commitment to any such future agreement.
Furthermore, Iraq has also been looking at growing production next year and has been one of the main opponents of an agreement. Goldman Sachs issued a statement to clients regarding the increased possibility of a production cut deal but also stressing that markets are unlikely to rebalance within the year.
Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih expressed his confidence that a deal would be reached by November. However, he further stressed the need to tread carefully and responsibly in order to not shock the market too much. It is very much worth noting that a potential large increase in oil prices might allow high-cost exporters (such as US shale exporters for whom current prices are unprofitable) to resume production starting the cycle all over again. On the other hand, in case a deal is unattainable, it is quite likely that we will see levels towards the low-40s once again.
These events have also been felt in the tanker market. Nigerian and Brazilian outputs specifically have helped to stop the recent decline in tanker rates. With Nigerian volumes back up to around 1.8mb/d, we have seen firmer Suezmax and VL rates (at 22k/d and 40k/d respectively). Brazil's output reached 2.6mb/d in August and is on a steady climb, which is expected to last until 2025. As internal demand has declined, exports have risen with approximately 40% of Brazil crude heading to China. Despite the adverse effect oversupply has had on prices and even though demand matching supply is rather questionable at the current state of the market, it has still offered more business for tankers and, as such, higher prices for oil won’t increase demand for it.
All in all, we will have to wait until the November official OPEC meetings for further firm developments. Given the general feeling of uncertainty and multitude of market-affecting variables in play at the moment, however, any sort of long-lasting stability seems rather farfetched.
By Linos Kogevinas
Marketing—Harbour Towage & Port Agency
Cotzias Intermodal Shipping Inc.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 08 May 17
US WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT ON THE DOWN - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totaled an estimated 13.8 million short tons ...
Thursday, 04 May 17
SUPRAMAX: INDO COAL ROUNDS LEVELS WITH DELIVERY CHINA IS TRADING AROUND LOW $6K, TRIP BACK TO CHINA
Supramax
The short week brought weaker rates across all routes. Supras from USG to Japan were fixed around $19-20 k daily and from ECSA to ECI $1 ...
Wednesday, 03 May 17
MALAYSIA SEEMS AS BIGGEST ADARO COAL IMPORTER IN Q1' 17
COALspot.com: In 1Q17, 30% of Adaro's sales went to Indonesia, the data from unaudited consolidated financial statement shows.
Malaysia ca ...
Wednesday, 03 May 17
MARKET INSIGHT - STELIOS KOLLINTZAS
The overall performance of each sector within the edible oil markets has remained poor for the past weeks. Apart from the veg oil exports fro ...
Tuesday, 02 May 17
THE FREIGHT MARKET CONTINUE TO SLUMP THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: The Freight market continues to slump this past week, as all segments except Handy Size show a negative downward trend.
The Balt ...
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- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Parliament of New Zealand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
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