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Wednesday, 12 October 16
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
 Another Monday has gone by, bringing with it further turbulence for oil. A series of meetings between high-production nations Russia & Saudi Arabia yielded statements signaling that a potential agreement to limit crude output is a possibility. According to Vladimir Putin “Russia is ready to join the joint measures to cap production and is calling for other oil exporters to join”. At the same time, Algeria has also called for similar measures to be taken by non-OPEC members. Following these events, and amidst speculation regarding the firming possibility of a Clinton presidency next month, oil surged to its highest levels this year, with the Brent futures reaching USD 53.73 and finally closing at USD 53.14 on Monday.
While the expectation of a possible agreement played its part in driving the futures to higher levels, the upward trend was short-lived with Brent falling back to USD 52.84 this morning. Growing doubts regarding whether the proposed measures would be enough to compensate for two years of oversupply, especially considering the higher production figures coming out of Libya, Nigeria and Iraq, have reigned in the index.
The strained relationship between OPEC members is also a concern, especially when it comes to Iran which, with its recent re-entry into the market, is looking to regain lost market share by increasing production. This comes into direct opposition with Saudi Arabia who has been adamant regarding Iran’s commitment to any such future agreement.
Furthermore, Iraq has also been looking at growing production next year and has been one of the main opponents of an agreement. Goldman Sachs issued a statement to clients regarding the increased possibility of a production cut deal but also stressing that markets are unlikely to rebalance within the year.
Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih expressed his confidence that a deal would be reached by November. However, he further stressed the need to tread carefully and responsibly in order to not shock the market too much. It is very much worth noting that a potential large increase in oil prices might allow high-cost exporters (such as US shale exporters for whom current prices are unprofitable) to resume production starting the cycle all over again. On the other hand, in case a deal is unattainable, it is quite likely that we will see levels towards the low-40s once again.
These events have also been felt in the tanker market. Nigerian and Brazilian outputs specifically have helped to stop the recent decline in tanker rates. With Nigerian volumes back up to around 1.8mb/d, we have seen firmer Suezmax and VL rates (at 22k/d and 40k/d respectively). Brazil's output reached 2.6mb/d in August and is on a steady climb, which is expected to last until 2025. As internal demand has declined, exports have risen with approximately 40% of Brazil crude heading to China. Despite the adverse effect oversupply has had on prices and even though demand matching supply is rather questionable at the current state of the market, it has still offered more business for tankers and, as such, higher prices for oil won’t increase demand for it.
All in all, we will have to wait until the November official OPEC meetings for further firm developments. Given the general feeling of uncertainty and multitude of market-affecting variables in play at the moment, however, any sort of long-lasting stability seems rather farfetched.
By Linos Kogevinas
Marketing—Harbour Towage & Port Agency
Cotzias Intermodal Shipping Inc.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 18 May 17
SOUTHEAST ASIA CAN ACCELERATE ACHIEVEMENT OF PARIS AGREEMENT GOALS - WCA
Low emissions coal in Asia reduces more CO2 emissions than renewable investment in Western Europe.
Investing in low emissions coal plants in S ...
Wednesday, 17 May 17
THE CHINESE IMPORTS ARE A BAROMETER FOR VESSEL UTILIZATION - INTERMODAL
According to economic data, China imports increased year-on-year 38% in February, 20% in March – which is approximately US$160-170b - w ...
Monday, 15 May 17
THE PORT OF NEWCASTLE HAS SHIPPED 0.99 PERCENT LESS COAL IN APRIL 2017
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports, and the world’s largest coal export ports has shipped $AU 1,636.2 ...
Monday, 15 May 17
THE CAPESIZE INDEX ROSE SIGNIFICANTLY THIS PAST WEEK COMPARED TO PREVIOUS WEEK
COALspot.com: The Freight market slightly up this past week, as BDI and Cape shows a positive trend week over week.
The Baltic Exchange, track ...
Friday, 12 May 17
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION DOWN AGAIN WEEK OVER WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totaled an estimated 13.3 million short tons ...
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- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- VISA Power Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
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