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Wednesday, 12 October 16
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
 Another Monday has gone by, bringing with it further turbulence for oil. A series of meetings between high-production nations Russia & Saudi Arabia yielded statements signaling that a potential agreement to limit crude output is a possibility. According to Vladimir Putin “Russia is ready to join the joint measures to cap production and is calling for other oil exporters to join”. At the same time, Algeria has also called for similar measures to be taken by non-OPEC members. Following these events, and amidst speculation regarding the firming possibility of a Clinton presidency next month, oil surged to its highest levels this year, with the Brent futures reaching USD 53.73 and finally closing at USD 53.14 on Monday.
While the expectation of a possible agreement played its part in driving the futures to higher levels, the upward trend was short-lived with Brent falling back to USD 52.84 this morning. Growing doubts regarding whether the proposed measures would be enough to compensate for two years of oversupply, especially considering the higher production figures coming out of Libya, Nigeria and Iraq, have reigned in the index.
The strained relationship between OPEC members is also a concern, especially when it comes to Iran which, with its recent re-entry into the market, is looking to regain lost market share by increasing production. This comes into direct opposition with Saudi Arabia who has been adamant regarding Iran’s commitment to any such future agreement.
Furthermore, Iraq has also been looking at growing production next year and has been one of the main opponents of an agreement. Goldman Sachs issued a statement to clients regarding the increased possibility of a production cut deal but also stressing that markets are unlikely to rebalance within the year.
Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih expressed his confidence that a deal would be reached by November. However, he further stressed the need to tread carefully and responsibly in order to not shock the market too much. It is very much worth noting that a potential large increase in oil prices might allow high-cost exporters (such as US shale exporters for whom current prices are unprofitable) to resume production starting the cycle all over again. On the other hand, in case a deal is unattainable, it is quite likely that we will see levels towards the low-40s once again.
These events have also been felt in the tanker market. Nigerian and Brazilian outputs specifically have helped to stop the recent decline in tanker rates. With Nigerian volumes back up to around 1.8mb/d, we have seen firmer Suezmax and VL rates (at 22k/d and 40k/d respectively). Brazil's output reached 2.6mb/d in August and is on a steady climb, which is expected to last until 2025. As internal demand has declined, exports have risen with approximately 40% of Brazil crude heading to China. Despite the adverse effect oversupply has had on prices and even though demand matching supply is rather questionable at the current state of the market, it has still offered more business for tankers and, as such, higher prices for oil won’t increase demand for it.
All in all, we will have to wait until the November official OPEC meetings for further firm developments. Given the general feeling of uncertainty and multitude of market-affecting variables in play at the moment, however, any sort of long-lasting stability seems rather farfetched.
By Linos Kogevinas
Marketing—Harbour Towage & Port Agency
Cotzias Intermodal Shipping Inc.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 24 May 17
LR MARKET IT SEEMS THAT EARNINGS ARE STILL UNDER PRESSURE - INTERMODAL
As we are approaching the summer season, the Clean Product market appears poised to become more challenging, either on East or West of Suez.
L ...
Tuesday, 23 May 17
TANKERS WEEKLY MARKET NOTE - ALLIED
It’s been a turbulent couple of weeks on the oil front, with the effectiveness of OPEC’s policy being under debate amongst most traders ...
Monday, 22 May 17
THE SHIPPING INDEX DECLINES AGAIN
COALspot.com: The Freight market again decline this past week, as BDI and all other indexes show a negative trend week over week.
The Baltic E ...
Friday, 19 May 17
U.S WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT UP 1.2% WEEK OVER WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 13.5 million short ton ...
Thursday, 18 May 17
SUPRAMAX : COAL TRIPS TO CHINA WITH VESSELS OPEN INDO HAVE BEEN FIXED AROUND $8000
Supramax
Atlantic market has stayed quiet with no substantial developments.
Cont to Med scrap cargoes have concluded around 11k says Fearnle ...
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- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- White Energy Company Limited
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- The University of Queensland
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
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