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Wednesday, 12 October 16
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
 Another Monday has gone by, bringing with it further turbulence for oil. A series of meetings between high-production nations Russia & Saudi Arabia yielded statements signaling that a potential agreement to limit crude output is a possibility. According to Vladimir Putin “Russia is ready to join the joint measures to cap production and is calling for other oil exporters to join”. At the same time, Algeria has also called for similar measures to be taken by non-OPEC members. Following these events, and amidst speculation regarding the firming possibility of a Clinton presidency next month, oil surged to its highest levels this year, with the Brent futures reaching USD 53.73 and finally closing at USD 53.14 on Monday.
While the expectation of a possible agreement played its part in driving the futures to higher levels, the upward trend was short-lived with Brent falling back to USD 52.84 this morning. Growing doubts regarding whether the proposed measures would be enough to compensate for two years of oversupply, especially considering the higher production figures coming out of Libya, Nigeria and Iraq, have reigned in the index.
The strained relationship between OPEC members is also a concern, especially when it comes to Iran which, with its recent re-entry into the market, is looking to regain lost market share by increasing production. This comes into direct opposition with Saudi Arabia who has been adamant regarding Iran’s commitment to any such future agreement.
Furthermore, Iraq has also been looking at growing production next year and has been one of the main opponents of an agreement. Goldman Sachs issued a statement to clients regarding the increased possibility of a production cut deal but also stressing that markets are unlikely to rebalance within the year.
Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih expressed his confidence that a deal would be reached by November. However, he further stressed the need to tread carefully and responsibly in order to not shock the market too much. It is very much worth noting that a potential large increase in oil prices might allow high-cost exporters (such as US shale exporters for whom current prices are unprofitable) to resume production starting the cycle all over again. On the other hand, in case a deal is unattainable, it is quite likely that we will see levels towards the low-40s once again.
These events have also been felt in the tanker market. Nigerian and Brazilian outputs specifically have helped to stop the recent decline in tanker rates. With Nigerian volumes back up to around 1.8mb/d, we have seen firmer Suezmax and VL rates (at 22k/d and 40k/d respectively). Brazil's output reached 2.6mb/d in August and is on a steady climb, which is expected to last until 2025. As internal demand has declined, exports have risen with approximately 40% of Brazil crude heading to China. Despite the adverse effect oversupply has had on prices and even though demand matching supply is rather questionable at the current state of the market, it has still offered more business for tankers and, as such, higher prices for oil won’t increase demand for it.
All in all, we will have to wait until the November official OPEC meetings for further firm developments. Given the general feeling of uncertainty and multitude of market-affecting variables in play at the moment, however, any sort of long-lasting stability seems rather farfetched.
By Linos Kogevinas
Marketing—Harbour Towage & Port Agency
Cotzias Intermodal Shipping Inc.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 02 June 17
U.S THE PAST WEEK'S COAL PRODUCTION ESTIMATE UP 4.4% - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totaled an estimated 15 million short tonnes ...
Wednesday, 31 May 17
MARKET INSIGHT - KONSTANTINOS KAKAVITSAS
In the next episode of the oil market; The market reacts to OPEC’s production cut extension, the US shale oil producers are ruining the carte ...
Tuesday, 30 May 17
MARKET ANALYSIS - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
Despite the fair performance that has been noted in the Chinese economy over the past 5 months, we have started to see an increase in the skepticis ...
Friday, 26 May 17
MOST COAL PLANTS IN THE UNITED STATES WERE BUILT BEFORE 1990 - EIA
Coal-fired electricity generators accounted for 25% of operating electricity generating capacity in the United States and generated about 30% of U. ...
Friday, 26 May 17
U.S WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT ESTIMATE UP 6.3% W/W
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 14.3 million short ton ...
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- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- CNBM International Corporation - China
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