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Wednesday, 12 October 16
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
 Another Monday has gone by, bringing with it further turbulence for oil. A series of meetings between high-production nations Russia & Saudi Arabia yielded statements signaling that a potential agreement to limit crude output is a possibility. According to Vladimir Putin “Russia is ready to join the joint measures to cap production and is calling for other oil exporters to join”. At the same time, Algeria has also called for similar measures to be taken by non-OPEC members. Following these events, and amidst speculation regarding the firming possibility of a Clinton presidency next month, oil surged to its highest levels this year, with the Brent futures reaching USD 53.73 and finally closing at USD 53.14 on Monday.
While the expectation of a possible agreement played its part in driving the futures to higher levels, the upward trend was short-lived with Brent falling back to USD 52.84 this morning. Growing doubts regarding whether the proposed measures would be enough to compensate for two years of oversupply, especially considering the higher production figures coming out of Libya, Nigeria and Iraq, have reigned in the index.
The strained relationship between OPEC members is also a concern, especially when it comes to Iran which, with its recent re-entry into the market, is looking to regain lost market share by increasing production. This comes into direct opposition with Saudi Arabia who has been adamant regarding Iran’s commitment to any such future agreement.
Furthermore, Iraq has also been looking at growing production next year and has been one of the main opponents of an agreement. Goldman Sachs issued a statement to clients regarding the increased possibility of a production cut deal but also stressing that markets are unlikely to rebalance within the year.
Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih expressed his confidence that a deal would be reached by November. However, he further stressed the need to tread carefully and responsibly in order to not shock the market too much. It is very much worth noting that a potential large increase in oil prices might allow high-cost exporters (such as US shale exporters for whom current prices are unprofitable) to resume production starting the cycle all over again. On the other hand, in case a deal is unattainable, it is quite likely that we will see levels towards the low-40s once again.
These events have also been felt in the tanker market. Nigerian and Brazilian outputs specifically have helped to stop the recent decline in tanker rates. With Nigerian volumes back up to around 1.8mb/d, we have seen firmer Suezmax and VL rates (at 22k/d and 40k/d respectively). Brazil's output reached 2.6mb/d in August and is on a steady climb, which is expected to last until 2025. As internal demand has declined, exports have risen with approximately 40% of Brazil crude heading to China. Despite the adverse effect oversupply has had on prices and even though demand matching supply is rather questionable at the current state of the market, it has still offered more business for tankers and, as such, higher prices for oil won’t increase demand for it.
All in all, we will have to wait until the November official OPEC meetings for further firm developments. Given the general feeling of uncertainty and multitude of market-affecting variables in play at the moment, however, any sort of long-lasting stability seems rather farfetched.
By Linos Kogevinas
Marketing—Harbour Towage & Port Agency
Cotzias Intermodal Shipping Inc.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 07 June 17
INDO HBA INDEX SEE LARGEST DROP SINCE FEBRUARY 2017
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal benchmark price decline 9.96% in June, government data showed.
The benchmark price of Indonesian thermal coal de ...
Wednesday, 07 June 17
MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS MAKRINOS
2017 undoubtedly began with very optimistic signs for the future of the Oil & Gas industry on the back of the Vienna Agreement. OPEC and non-OP ...
Tuesday, 06 June 17
THE FREIGHT MARKET WAS CONTINUE TO TUMBLE THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: The Freight market continued to tumble this past week, as BDI and cape index showed a negative trend week over week.
The Baltic ...
Friday, 02 June 17
THE WORLD COAL ASSOCIATION HAS RESPONDED TO THE WITHDRAWAL OF THE UNITED STATES FROM THE PARIS AGREEMENT
“This decision is the result of a failure to build a genuine coalition on climate action that recognises the role of all technologies, includ ...
Friday, 02 June 17
MOL SIGNS COAL TRANSPORT DEAL WITH THERMAL POWERTECH CORPORATION INDIA LIMITED
MOL Signs Coal Transport Deal with Thermal Powertech Corporation India Limited - Contributing to a Stable Power Supply in India -
Jun ...
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- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- The University of Queensland
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
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