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Wednesday, 12 October 16
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
 Another Monday has gone by, bringing with it further turbulence for oil. A series of meetings between high-production nations Russia & Saudi Arabia yielded statements signaling that a potential agreement to limit crude output is a possibility. According to Vladimir Putin “Russia is ready to join the joint measures to cap production and is calling for other oil exporters to join”. At the same time, Algeria has also called for similar measures to be taken by non-OPEC members. Following these events, and amidst speculation regarding the firming possibility of a Clinton presidency next month, oil surged to its highest levels this year, with the Brent futures reaching USD 53.73 and finally closing at USD 53.14 on Monday.
While the expectation of a possible agreement played its part in driving the futures to higher levels, the upward trend was short-lived with Brent falling back to USD 52.84 this morning. Growing doubts regarding whether the proposed measures would be enough to compensate for two years of oversupply, especially considering the higher production figures coming out of Libya, Nigeria and Iraq, have reigned in the index.
The strained relationship between OPEC members is also a concern, especially when it comes to Iran which, with its recent re-entry into the market, is looking to regain lost market share by increasing production. This comes into direct opposition with Saudi Arabia who has been adamant regarding Iran’s commitment to any such future agreement.
Furthermore, Iraq has also been looking at growing production next year and has been one of the main opponents of an agreement. Goldman Sachs issued a statement to clients regarding the increased possibility of a production cut deal but also stressing that markets are unlikely to rebalance within the year.
Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih expressed his confidence that a deal would be reached by November. However, he further stressed the need to tread carefully and responsibly in order to not shock the market too much. It is very much worth noting that a potential large increase in oil prices might allow high-cost exporters (such as US shale exporters for whom current prices are unprofitable) to resume production starting the cycle all over again. On the other hand, in case a deal is unattainable, it is quite likely that we will see levels towards the low-40s once again.
These events have also been felt in the tanker market. Nigerian and Brazilian outputs specifically have helped to stop the recent decline in tanker rates. With Nigerian volumes back up to around 1.8mb/d, we have seen firmer Suezmax and VL rates (at 22k/d and 40k/d respectively). Brazil's output reached 2.6mb/d in August and is on a steady climb, which is expected to last until 2025. As internal demand has declined, exports have risen with approximately 40% of Brazil crude heading to China. Despite the adverse effect oversupply has had on prices and even though demand matching supply is rather questionable at the current state of the market, it has still offered more business for tankers and, as such, higher prices for oil won’t increase demand for it.
All in all, we will have to wait until the November official OPEC meetings for further firm developments. Given the general feeling of uncertainty and multitude of market-affecting variables in play at the moment, however, any sort of long-lasting stability seems rather farfetched.
By Linos Kogevinas
Marketing—Harbour Towage & Port Agency
Cotzias Intermodal Shipping Inc.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 12 May 17
SLOW AND UNEVENTFUL WEEK FOR THE PANAMAX MARKET
Supramax
In the Atlantic, only USG were showing some improvement, where pet-coke cargoes to India was fixed in the range of 19-23k daily and to C ...
Wednesday, 10 May 17
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Up until a few weeks ago, demo deals were being concluded at just a fraction below $400/ldt. Last time we saw demo prices around that level was in ...
Tuesday, 09 May 17
DRY BULK TRADE IS STILL HEAVILY RELIANT ON CHINA - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
We have seen an overall cool down in the dry bulk and tanker markets over the final two weeks of April, sparking worries amongst ship-owners that t ...
Monday, 08 May 17
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE RISES FOR SECOND STRAIGHT MONTH IN MAY
COALspot.com: Indonesian government declared coal benchmark price rose in May, government data showed.
The benchmark price of Indonesian therm ...
Monday, 08 May 17
OCEAN BULK CARGO RATES FALL FURTHER THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: The Freight market continues to slump this past week, with all segments show a negative downward trend week over week.
The Balti ...
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- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Planning Commission, India
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