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Wednesday, 12 October 16
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
 Another Monday has gone by, bringing with it further turbulence for oil. A series of meetings between high-production nations Russia & Saudi Arabia yielded statements signaling that a potential agreement to limit crude output is a possibility. According to Vladimir Putin “Russia is ready to join the joint measures to cap production and is calling for other oil exporters to join”. At the same time, Algeria has also called for similar measures to be taken by non-OPEC members. Following these events, and amidst speculation regarding the firming possibility of a Clinton presidency next month, oil surged to its highest levels this year, with the Brent futures reaching USD 53.73 and finally closing at USD 53.14 on Monday.
While the expectation of a possible agreement played its part in driving the futures to higher levels, the upward trend was short-lived with Brent falling back to USD 52.84 this morning. Growing doubts regarding whether the proposed measures would be enough to compensate for two years of oversupply, especially considering the higher production figures coming out of Libya, Nigeria and Iraq, have reigned in the index.
The strained relationship between OPEC members is also a concern, especially when it comes to Iran which, with its recent re-entry into the market, is looking to regain lost market share by increasing production. This comes into direct opposition with Saudi Arabia who has been adamant regarding Iran’s commitment to any such future agreement.
Furthermore, Iraq has also been looking at growing production next year and has been one of the main opponents of an agreement. Goldman Sachs issued a statement to clients regarding the increased possibility of a production cut deal but also stressing that markets are unlikely to rebalance within the year.
Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih expressed his confidence that a deal would be reached by November. However, he further stressed the need to tread carefully and responsibly in order to not shock the market too much. It is very much worth noting that a potential large increase in oil prices might allow high-cost exporters (such as US shale exporters for whom current prices are unprofitable) to resume production starting the cycle all over again. On the other hand, in case a deal is unattainable, it is quite likely that we will see levels towards the low-40s once again.
These events have also been felt in the tanker market. Nigerian and Brazilian outputs specifically have helped to stop the recent decline in tanker rates. With Nigerian volumes back up to around 1.8mb/d, we have seen firmer Suezmax and VL rates (at 22k/d and 40k/d respectively). Brazil's output reached 2.6mb/d in August and is on a steady climb, which is expected to last until 2025. As internal demand has declined, exports have risen with approximately 40% of Brazil crude heading to China. Despite the adverse effect oversupply has had on prices and even though demand matching supply is rather questionable at the current state of the market, it has still offered more business for tankers and, as such, higher prices for oil won’t increase demand for it.
All in all, we will have to wait until the November official OPEC meetings for further firm developments. Given the general feeling of uncertainty and multitude of market-affecting variables in play at the moment, however, any sort of long-lasting stability seems rather farfetched.
By Linos Kogevinas
Marketing—Harbour Towage & Port Agency
Cotzias Intermodal Shipping Inc.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 12 December 16
INDONESIA TO INDIA FREIGHT RATES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SOFT THIS WEEK
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities decline this past week and ending on a negative note week ...
Thursday, 08 December 16
STABLE OUTLOOK FOR GLOBAL MINING IN 2017 : FITCH
Fitch Ratings' sector and rating outlooks for the global mining industry in 2017 are both stable, reflecting Fitch's view that prices have ...
Thursday, 08 December 16
CHINESE COAL DEMAND WOULD BE THE KEY FACTOR THAT INFLUENCE WORLD COAL PRICES IN 2017, POLL
“WHAT ARE THE KEY FACTORS THAT MAY INFLUENCE WORLD'S COAL PRICES IN 2017?”
The on-line opinion poll conducted by COALspot.com ...
Thursday, 08 December 16
PANAMAX: THE FIRM TENDENCY CONTINUES IN BOTH HEMISPHERES - FEARNLEY
Supramax
Market remained firm - true mostly within Atlantic.
Star performer USG remained its title, where Supras reached around USD 21k ...
Wednesday, 07 December 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - THEODOROS NTALAKOS
Looking back at my previous end-of-year insights, for the last seven years, in each and every one of them, I begin with something like “there ...
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- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Australian Coal Association
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
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