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Wednesday, 12 October 16
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
 Another Monday has gone by, bringing with it further turbulence for oil. A series of meetings between high-production nations Russia & Saudi Arabia yielded statements signaling that a potential agreement to limit crude output is a possibility. According to Vladimir Putin “Russia is ready to join the joint measures to cap production and is calling for other oil exporters to join”. At the same time, Algeria has also called for similar measures to be taken by non-OPEC members. Following these events, and amidst speculation regarding the firming possibility of a Clinton presidency next month, oil surged to its highest levels this year, with the Brent futures reaching USD 53.73 and finally closing at USD 53.14 on Monday.
While the expectation of a possible agreement played its part in driving the futures to higher levels, the upward trend was short-lived with Brent falling back to USD 52.84 this morning. Growing doubts regarding whether the proposed measures would be enough to compensate for two years of oversupply, especially considering the higher production figures coming out of Libya, Nigeria and Iraq, have reigned in the index.
The strained relationship between OPEC members is also a concern, especially when it comes to Iran which, with its recent re-entry into the market, is looking to regain lost market share by increasing production. This comes into direct opposition with Saudi Arabia who has been adamant regarding Iran’s commitment to any such future agreement.
Furthermore, Iraq has also been looking at growing production next year and has been one of the main opponents of an agreement. Goldman Sachs issued a statement to clients regarding the increased possibility of a production cut deal but also stressing that markets are unlikely to rebalance within the year.
Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih expressed his confidence that a deal would be reached by November. However, he further stressed the need to tread carefully and responsibly in order to not shock the market too much. It is very much worth noting that a potential large increase in oil prices might allow high-cost exporters (such as US shale exporters for whom current prices are unprofitable) to resume production starting the cycle all over again. On the other hand, in case a deal is unattainable, it is quite likely that we will see levels towards the low-40s once again.
These events have also been felt in the tanker market. Nigerian and Brazilian outputs specifically have helped to stop the recent decline in tanker rates. With Nigerian volumes back up to around 1.8mb/d, we have seen firmer Suezmax and VL rates (at 22k/d and 40k/d respectively). Brazil's output reached 2.6mb/d in August and is on a steady climb, which is expected to last until 2025. As internal demand has declined, exports have risen with approximately 40% of Brazil crude heading to China. Despite the adverse effect oversupply has had on prices and even though demand matching supply is rather questionable at the current state of the market, it has still offered more business for tankers and, as such, higher prices for oil won’t increase demand for it.
All in all, we will have to wait until the November official OPEC meetings for further firm developments. Given the general feeling of uncertainty and multitude of market-affecting variables in play at the moment, however, any sort of long-lasting stability seems rather farfetched.
By Linos Kogevinas
Marketing—Harbour Towage & Port Agency
Cotzias Intermodal Shipping Inc.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 27 October 16
PANAMAX: FIRM ATLANTIC; TOPPISH PACIFIC - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
The trend from last week is passed on. ECSA still strong with Supras from N Brazil to Med fixed at $9,000 to $9,500 daily.
Accordin ...
Wednesday, 26 October 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - KONSTANTINOS KONTOMICHIS
If the finale of a thriller movie finds the leading actor successfully surviving after all the sacrifices he has made, the audience presumes this t ...
Tuesday, 25 October 16
INDONESIAN COAL PRICES MARCH HIGHER CONTINUES
COALspot.com: A rally in thermal coal prices over the past few months, after years of decline, is still continuing and it is expected to rally at l ...
Tuesday, 25 October 16
THINGS ARE SLOWLY STARTING TO IMPROVE AS CORRECTIONS ARE MADE - ALLIED
It seems as though left, right and centre, all we see nowadays is the word “restructuring”.
There is restructuring amongst bankers ...
Monday, 24 October 16
KOMIPO INVITES BIDS FOR 0.78 MILLION TONS OF BITUMINOUS COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued a new tender for 780,000 Metric Tons of Bituminous Coal for its B ...
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- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- The University of Queensland
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
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