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Wednesday, 12 October 16
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
 Another Monday has gone by, bringing with it further turbulence for oil. A series of meetings between high-production nations Russia & Saudi Arabia yielded statements signaling that a potential agreement to limit crude output is a possibility. According to Vladimir Putin “Russia is ready to join the joint measures to cap production and is calling for other oil exporters to join”. At the same time, Algeria has also called for similar measures to be taken by non-OPEC members. Following these events, and amidst speculation regarding the firming possibility of a Clinton presidency next month, oil surged to its highest levels this year, with the Brent futures reaching USD 53.73 and finally closing at USD 53.14 on Monday.
While the expectation of a possible agreement played its part in driving the futures to higher levels, the upward trend was short-lived with Brent falling back to USD 52.84 this morning. Growing doubts regarding whether the proposed measures would be enough to compensate for two years of oversupply, especially considering the higher production figures coming out of Libya, Nigeria and Iraq, have reigned in the index.
The strained relationship between OPEC members is also a concern, especially when it comes to Iran which, with its recent re-entry into the market, is looking to regain lost market share by increasing production. This comes into direct opposition with Saudi Arabia who has been adamant regarding Iran’s commitment to any such future agreement.
Furthermore, Iraq has also been looking at growing production next year and has been one of the main opponents of an agreement. Goldman Sachs issued a statement to clients regarding the increased possibility of a production cut deal but also stressing that markets are unlikely to rebalance within the year.
Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih expressed his confidence that a deal would be reached by November. However, he further stressed the need to tread carefully and responsibly in order to not shock the market too much. It is very much worth noting that a potential large increase in oil prices might allow high-cost exporters (such as US shale exporters for whom current prices are unprofitable) to resume production starting the cycle all over again. On the other hand, in case a deal is unattainable, it is quite likely that we will see levels towards the low-40s once again.
These events have also been felt in the tanker market. Nigerian and Brazilian outputs specifically have helped to stop the recent decline in tanker rates. With Nigerian volumes back up to around 1.8mb/d, we have seen firmer Suezmax and VL rates (at 22k/d and 40k/d respectively). Brazil's output reached 2.6mb/d in August and is on a steady climb, which is expected to last until 2025. As internal demand has declined, exports have risen with approximately 40% of Brazil crude heading to China. Despite the adverse effect oversupply has had on prices and even though demand matching supply is rather questionable at the current state of the market, it has still offered more business for tankers and, as such, higher prices for oil won’t increase demand for it.
All in all, we will have to wait until the November official OPEC meetings for further firm developments. Given the general feeling of uncertainty and multitude of market-affecting variables in play at the moment, however, any sort of long-lasting stability seems rather farfetched.
By Linos Kogevinas
Marketing—Harbour Towage & Port Agency
Cotzias Intermodal Shipping Inc.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 06 July 16
MARKET INSIGHT - VASSILIS VASSILIOU
After a fairly silent first half of the year in the ship repair sector, we have finally a harmonized workload in the shipyards around the world. Ma ...
Tuesday, 05 July 16
DRY BULK SHIPPING'S RECOVERY NOT SEEN UNTIL 2018 - SGX
SGX freight derivative volumes totaled 36,542 contracts in June (-28% m/m; +52% y/y), while open interest averaged 121,189 contracts during the mon ...
Tuesday, 05 July 16
SPOT COAL INDEXES FOR INDONESIAN COAL CONTINUE TO HOLD FIRM - CS COAL INDEX
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin was up by 0.83 percent week over week to averaging $39.98 per ton this past week, sh ...
Monday, 04 July 16
INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE CLIMBED 2.30% IN JULY
COALspot.com: The Indonesia Coal Benchmark Price increased in July 2016.
The Director General of Mineral and Coal of Indonesia, the r ...
Monday, 04 July 16
BDI ROSE ON STRONGER DEMAND ACROSS ALL VESSEL SEGMENTS
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities rose this past week. The BDI was up 11.16 percent from la ...
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- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- PTC India Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Planning Commission, India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Australian Coal Association
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- White Energy Company Limited
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
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