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Wednesday, 12 October 16
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
 Another Monday has gone by, bringing with it further turbulence for oil. A series of meetings between high-production nations Russia & Saudi Arabia yielded statements signaling that a potential agreement to limit crude output is a possibility. According to Vladimir Putin “Russia is ready to join the joint measures to cap production and is calling for other oil exporters to join”. At the same time, Algeria has also called for similar measures to be taken by non-OPEC members. Following these events, and amidst speculation regarding the firming possibility of a Clinton presidency next month, oil surged to its highest levels this year, with the Brent futures reaching USD 53.73 and finally closing at USD 53.14 on Monday.
While the expectation of a possible agreement played its part in driving the futures to higher levels, the upward trend was short-lived with Brent falling back to USD 52.84 this morning. Growing doubts regarding whether the proposed measures would be enough to compensate for two years of oversupply, especially considering the higher production figures coming out of Libya, Nigeria and Iraq, have reigned in the index.
The strained relationship between OPEC members is also a concern, especially when it comes to Iran which, with its recent re-entry into the market, is looking to regain lost market share by increasing production. This comes into direct opposition with Saudi Arabia who has been adamant regarding Iran’s commitment to any such future agreement.
Furthermore, Iraq has also been looking at growing production next year and has been one of the main opponents of an agreement. Goldman Sachs issued a statement to clients regarding the increased possibility of a production cut deal but also stressing that markets are unlikely to rebalance within the year.
Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih expressed his confidence that a deal would be reached by November. However, he further stressed the need to tread carefully and responsibly in order to not shock the market too much. It is very much worth noting that a potential large increase in oil prices might allow high-cost exporters (such as US shale exporters for whom current prices are unprofitable) to resume production starting the cycle all over again. On the other hand, in case a deal is unattainable, it is quite likely that we will see levels towards the low-40s once again.
These events have also been felt in the tanker market. Nigerian and Brazilian outputs specifically have helped to stop the recent decline in tanker rates. With Nigerian volumes back up to around 1.8mb/d, we have seen firmer Suezmax and VL rates (at 22k/d and 40k/d respectively). Brazil's output reached 2.6mb/d in August and is on a steady climb, which is expected to last until 2025. As internal demand has declined, exports have risen with approximately 40% of Brazil crude heading to China. Despite the adverse effect oversupply has had on prices and even though demand matching supply is rather questionable at the current state of the market, it has still offered more business for tankers and, as such, higher prices for oil won’t increase demand for it.
All in all, we will have to wait until the November official OPEC meetings for further firm developments. Given the general feeling of uncertainty and multitude of market-affecting variables in play at the moment, however, any sort of long-lasting stability seems rather farfetched.
By Linos Kogevinas
Marketing—Harbour Towage & Port Agency
Cotzias Intermodal Shipping Inc.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 28 June 16
WEEKLY CS COAL INDICES ROSE ON RENEWED DEMAND FROM CHINA
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin was up by 0.66 percent week over week to averaging $39.65 per ton this past week, sh ...
Tuesday, 28 June 16
CHINA'S IRON ORE IMPORTS: HOW MUCH MORE WORK FOR CAPES? - CLARKSONS
Chinese iron ore imports account for around two thirds of global seaborne iron ore shipments, making it the key driver of Capesize employment. Whil ...
Monday, 27 June 16
LATEST NEWS ON BIMCO'S CONTRACTS AND CLAUSES
BIMCO is currently updating several of its most widely used charter parties including SUPPLYTIME and BARECON. New developments include the Standard ...
Monday, 27 June 16
BREXIT RESULT COULD SEE UK FACING AN EXODUS OF MARITIME TALENT - FASTSTREAM
The UK’s decision to leave the EU has the potential to drive many of its maritime employees away, according to the results of a survey issued ...
Monday, 27 June 16
THE BDI UP 3.75 PERCENT ; BCI FELL 1.51% WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities rose this past week. The BDI was up 3.75 percent from las ...
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- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
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