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Wednesday, 12 October 16
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
 Another Monday has gone by, bringing with it further turbulence for oil. A series of meetings between high-production nations Russia & Saudi Arabia yielded statements signaling that a potential agreement to limit crude output is a possibility. According to Vladimir Putin “Russia is ready to join the joint measures to cap production and is calling for other oil exporters to join”. At the same time, Algeria has also called for similar measures to be taken by non-OPEC members. Following these events, and amidst speculation regarding the firming possibility of a Clinton presidency next month, oil surged to its highest levels this year, with the Brent futures reaching USD 53.73 and finally closing at USD 53.14 on Monday.
While the expectation of a possible agreement played its part in driving the futures to higher levels, the upward trend was short-lived with Brent falling back to USD 52.84 this morning. Growing doubts regarding whether the proposed measures would be enough to compensate for two years of oversupply, especially considering the higher production figures coming out of Libya, Nigeria and Iraq, have reigned in the index.
The strained relationship between OPEC members is also a concern, especially when it comes to Iran which, with its recent re-entry into the market, is looking to regain lost market share by increasing production. This comes into direct opposition with Saudi Arabia who has been adamant regarding Iran’s commitment to any such future agreement.
Furthermore, Iraq has also been looking at growing production next year and has been one of the main opponents of an agreement. Goldman Sachs issued a statement to clients regarding the increased possibility of a production cut deal but also stressing that markets are unlikely to rebalance within the year.
Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih expressed his confidence that a deal would be reached by November. However, he further stressed the need to tread carefully and responsibly in order to not shock the market too much. It is very much worth noting that a potential large increase in oil prices might allow high-cost exporters (such as US shale exporters for whom current prices are unprofitable) to resume production starting the cycle all over again. On the other hand, in case a deal is unattainable, it is quite likely that we will see levels towards the low-40s once again.
These events have also been felt in the tanker market. Nigerian and Brazilian outputs specifically have helped to stop the recent decline in tanker rates. With Nigerian volumes back up to around 1.8mb/d, we have seen firmer Suezmax and VL rates (at 22k/d and 40k/d respectively). Brazil's output reached 2.6mb/d in August and is on a steady climb, which is expected to last until 2025. As internal demand has declined, exports have risen with approximately 40% of Brazil crude heading to China. Despite the adverse effect oversupply has had on prices and even though demand matching supply is rather questionable at the current state of the market, it has still offered more business for tankers and, as such, higher prices for oil won’t increase demand for it.
All in all, we will have to wait until the November official OPEC meetings for further firm developments. Given the general feeling of uncertainty and multitude of market-affecting variables in play at the moment, however, any sort of long-lasting stability seems rather farfetched.
By Linos Kogevinas
Marketing—Harbour Towage & Port Agency
Cotzias Intermodal Shipping Inc.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 20 June 16
THE BDI HAS FELL 23 POINTS WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities declined this past week. The BDI was fell 3.77 percent fr ...
Friday, 17 June 16
CHINA'S NEW POLICY TO REDUCE WASTE IN RENEWABLE ENERGY - FITCH
Chinese renewable energy producers are likely to benefit from a new policy that guarantees a minimum amount of solar and wind power is purchased in ...
Friday, 17 June 16
KOMIPO INVITES BIDS FOR BITUMINOUS COAL FOR BORYEONG POWER PLANT
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued a new tender for 780,000 Metric Tons of Bituminous Coal for its B ...
Friday, 17 June 16
U.S WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION UP 7.7% - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s one of the largest coal producer has produced approximately totalled an estimated 12.9 million short t ...
Wednesday, 15 June 16
THE DRY BULK PRICES CORRECTED UPWARDS ROUGHLY 15% - KONSTANTINOS KONTOMICHIS
Once more, the international shipping community turned its attention to Greece and more specifically to Attica that hosted Posidonia, the biggest m ...
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- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- White Energy Company Limited
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Australian Coal Association
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PTC India Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- The University of Queensland
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
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